WEEKLY SUMMARY: A week of surprises, shifts, and speculations
The main US equity indices were mixed with the #Nasdaq outperforming (along with the S&P 500) while The Dow ended lower on the week. Growth #stocks handily outperformed value shares, helped by another substantial #earnings and revenue beat by artificial intelligence chipmaker #NVIDIA. Financials pulled back early in the week after S&P Global downgraded its credit ratings of five regional banks. Several retailers reported 2Q results, which arguably offered a generally cautious picture on the health of the U.S. consumer. On the macro side, disappointing data dominated the week with the Citi macro surprise index tumbling most since April. There were some bright spots: the weekly jobless claims report came in at 320,000, the lowest level in three weeks while US new home sales reached their highest level in July since early 2022, despite the highest mortgage rates in years. On Friday, before the central bank’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Powell's speech was hawkish but more balanced than last year and than some had feared. The highlight was on data-dependency as options remain open. After hitting its highest intraday level (4.36%) since 2007 on Tuesday, the US 10-year yield fell back to end relatively unchanged for the week at 4.24%. In Europe, the STOXX Europe 600 Index ended 0.66% higher as European natural gas prices dropped and expectations grew that interest rates may soon peak. Chinese stocks fell as investors grew more pessimistic about the country’s economic outlook.
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Most US equities indexes ended the week lower, although the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced modestly and cleared the 20,000 mark for the first time. The Russell 2000 Index recorded a second consecutive week of underperformance against the S&P 500 Index. Growth stocks posted a third consecutive week of outperformance versus value, thanks in part to gains in shares of Tesla (12%) and Alphabet (8.4%). On the macro-economic side, stagflation fears started to rise once again. Indeed, YoY CPI and PPI both accelerated. Meanwhile overall macro surprises disappointed for the fourth week in a row: on Thursday, the Labor Department reported a surprise jump in weekly initial jobless claims to a two-month high of 242,000.