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WEEKLY SUMMARY: A week of surprises, shifts, and speculations
The main US equity indices were mixed with the #Nasdaq outperforming (along with the S&P 500) while The Dow ended lower on the week. Growth #stocks handily outperformed value shares, helped by another substantial #earnings and revenue beat by artificial intelligence chipmaker #NVIDIA. Financials pulled back early in the week after S&P Global downgraded its credit ratings of five regional banks. Several retailers reported 2Q results, which arguably offered a generally cautious picture on the health of the U.S. consumer. On the macro side, disappointing data dominated the week with the Citi macro surprise index tumbling most since April. There were some bright spots: the weekly jobless claims report came in at 320,000, the lowest level in three weeks while US new home sales reached their highest level in July since early 2022, despite the highest mortgage rates in years. On Friday, before the central bank’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Powell's speech was hawkish but more balanced than last year and than some had feared. The highlight was on data-dependency as options remain open. After hitting its highest intraday level (4.36%) since 2007 on Tuesday, the US 10-year yield fell back to end relatively unchanged for the week at 4.24%. In Europe, the STOXX Europe 600 Index ended 0.66% higher as European natural gas prices dropped and expectations grew that interest rates may soon peak. Chinese stocks fell as investors grew more pessimistic about the country’s economic outlook.
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Most of US equities indices rose to record highs, as investors wagered that a “red sweep” (Republicans winning Presidency, Senate and Congress) would result in faster earnings growth, looser regulations, and lower corporate taxes. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index surged 8.57% for the week but was the sole benchmark to remain out of record territory. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones hit 44.000 for the first time while the S&P 500 closed just shy of 6,000, up 4.7% for the week, its best weekly gain in almost a year. On Thursday, the Fed announced a 25bps rate cut, its first easing move since cutting rates by 50 basis points in mid-September. In terms of economic data, the October ISM services sector activity came in at 56.0, well above expectations and the best reading since August 2022. U.S. Treasuries generated positive returns heading into Friday, as yields largely ended lower than where they ended the previous week.