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WEEKLY SUMMARY: Stocks, gold, oil and the $ jumped. Cryptos dumped
Signs that the US jobs market is cooling down helped the major US equity indices to register solid gains for the week, although stocks closed out their first negative month since February. A decrease in bond yields over much of the week provided a boost to growth shares. Smaller-cap stocks outperformed. Indeed, bad news for the economy was considered good news for stock prices, given the interest rate implications. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 Index recorded its best one-day gain since June, following news that job openings unexpectedly fell by 338,000 in July and hit their lowest level since March 2001. Friday’s closely watched nonfarm payrolls report appeared to confirm loosening labor market conditions. US employers added 187,000 jobs in August, somewhat above consensus expectations, but gains for the previous two months were revised lower by a combined 110,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate climbed from 3.5% to 3.8% to reach its highest point since February 2022. While short-term Treasury yields decreased considerably over the week, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased sharply on Friday morning, leaving it modestly lower for the week. This could be linked to WTI soaring to $86, the highest level since Nov 2022. Gold rallied for the second week in a row, topping $1950 back at one-month highs. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index ended the week 1.5% higher while Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose by 3.4%. The dollar surged while Bitcoin dropped back below $26,000.
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US equities gave back a portion of the previous week’s gains, as uncertainty over the incoming administration’s policies appeared to continue driving the so-called Trump Trade. Financials and energy shares continue to benefit from hopes for deregulation and merger approvals. Likewise, the price of Bitcoin had surged by nearly a third since the eve of the election, as investors anticipated looser regulation of digital currencies. Conversely, health care shares fell sharply following news that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., would be Trump’s nominee to head the Health and Human Services Department (HHS). On the macro side, yoy US headline inflation rose for the 1st time since March, from 2.4% to 2.6%. PPI data came in above expectations.