WEEKLY SUMMARY: Good macro news are bad news for the market
Stocks closed lower over the holiday-shortened week as positive economic data drove an increase in bond yields. Growth stocks and large-caps outperformed value and small-caps. Apple was one of the main negative performance contributors after news that Chinese government employees would no longer be able to use iPhones. Declines in NVIDIA and other chipmakers also weighed on the indexes. Macroeconomic data surprised on the upside. E.g the ISM report on August services sector activity jumped unexpectedly to its highest level since February. Meanwhile, Thursday’s weekly jobless claims report came in lower than expected; the number of Americans applying for unemployment in the previous week fell to 216,000, the lowest level in six months. The jobless numbers sparked a rise in short-term bond yields, with the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note briefly crossing back above the 5% threshold on Thursday afternoon. In Europe, the STOXX Europe 600 Index ended 0.76% lower as a string of economic data provided more signals that the eurozone economy continues to stumble. Chinese stocks retreated as the latest economic indicators reinforced concerns about the country’s weakening outlook. Oil prices rallied for the 9th week of the last 11 with WTI pushing up towards $90 (its highest weekly close since November). The dollar surged to its best week since February and its highest weekly close since December. The dollar has risen for 8 straight weeks.
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U.S. stock indexes finished the holiday-shortened week higher, boosted by dovish comments from some Fed officials and several weaker-than-expected economic reports that seemed to reinforce the idea that a December rate cut remains on track. Small-cap stocks outperformed their large-cap peers, as the Russell 2000 Index advanced 5.5%. The Nasdaq Composite also posted strong returns, rebounding from the prior week’s sell-off as concerns regarding elevated valuations and spending on AI appeared to take a back seat to optimism around the growth potential from the technology. In economic news, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.2% in September (below +0.4% estimates). September PPI rose 0.3% in September, in line with estimates.


