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WEEKLY SUMMARY: Friday's squeeze saved stocks from bonds bloodbath
The major US equity indexes closed mixed with a 1.6% weekly gain for the Nasdaq and a -0.3% decline for the Dow as Large-cap growth stocks sharply outperformed value and small-caps. An equally weighted version of the S&P 500 Index lagged its market-weighted counterpart by the largest margin since March. Similarly, the S&P 500 outperformed the small-cap Russell 2000 Index by the widest margin over the same period. The most important macro data of the week was the US payroll report on Friday. Employers added 336,000 nonfarm jobs in September, roughly double consensus estimates. The details in the jobs report offered a more nuanced picture, however, which appeared to foster a market rebound. Indeed, average hourly earnings rose 0.2% in the month, bringing down the year-over-year gain to 4.2%, its lowest level since June 2021. The workforce participation rate also stayed steady at 62.8%, its best level since the eve of the pandemic lockdowns in February 2020. Taken together, the data suggested that increasing supply instead of rampant demand for workers was driving the labor market, making for a more benign inflationary environment. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note spiked to another 16-year high of around 4.89% in early trading Friday but fell back somewhat as equities rallied later in the morning. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index ended 1.2% lower while the Nikkei 225 Index down 2.7%. WTI Oil tumbled to $81, a 6-weeks low.
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Stocks suffered their worst week in six months as an avalanche of geopolitical and macro-economic headlines crossed paths with an ugly technical situation. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indices all fell by over 3%, while the Dow Jones shed 2.37%, erasing most of its year-to-date gains. Ongoing uncertainty around trade policy remained a focal point throughout the week. Macro data shows manufacturing growth slowing while services activity is accelerating. The U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February, slightly below expectations but ahead of January’s reading of 125,000. In Europe, the STOXX Europe 600 Index ended 0.69% lower, snapping 10 weeks of gains.
