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WEEKLY SUMMARY: Bitcoin & Bullion Jump, Stocks & Bonds Dump
Geopolitical concerns, tough talk from Fed officials, and a rise in long-term bond yields to 16-year highs appeared to weigh on sentiment and drove the S&P 500 Index to its biggest weekly decline in a month. The Nasdaq fared worst among the major benchmarks and nearly moved back into bear market territory, ending the week 19.9% below its early-2022. Growth stocks lagged their value counterparts. Europe, Japan and China equities dropped sharply over the week. Stocks started the week on a strong note helped by limited negative news flow regarding the Middle East over the weekend. Deepening tensions later in the week appeared to drain the gains, however. In particular, shares fell sharply on Thursday afternoon, following reports that a U.S. Navy destroyer had shot down a cruise missile apparently headed toward Israel. Reports of a drone attack on a U.S. base in Iraq also seemed to weigh on sentiment. “Fedspeak” that was arguably less dovish than recent remarks from policymakers may have also been at work. In particular, markets pulled back sharply after Powell stated that he saw no signs that the current stance of Fed policy would push the economy into a recession. Some upside economic surprises (retail sales, jobless claims) may have reinforced worries that rates would remain “higher for longer.” The yield on the US 10-year note nearly hit 5% intraday on Friday. Gold surged to nearly $2,000 while Bitcoin jumped towards $30k. Oil rose despite US easing sanctions on Venezuela.
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US equities managed to snap a string of three weekly losses. Earnings took center stage with the spotlight on the Magnificent 7 stocks. Despite the high bar, companies have so far been able to beat expectations, helping the S&P 500 recover half of its April losses. The Nasdaq outperformed, up 4% on the week (its best week since the start of Nov 2023), helped in part by strength in Apple and a late rebound in chipmaker NVIDIA. Shares in Google parent Alphabet also surged in the week following its announcement of better-than-expected Q1 earnings along with the company’s first dividend payment. The Dow was the laggard. On the Macro side, the US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.6% in Q1, well below consensus estimates of around 2.5% and the slowest pace of growth in nearly two years.