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WEEKLY SUMMARY: Bitcoin & Bullion Jump, Stocks & Bonds Dump
Geopolitical concerns, tough talk from Fed officials, and a rise in long-term bond yields to 16-year highs appeared to weigh on sentiment and drove the S&P 500 Index to its biggest weekly decline in a month. The Nasdaq fared worst among the major benchmarks and nearly moved back into bear market territory, ending the week 19.9% below its early-2022. Growth stocks lagged their value counterparts. Europe, Japan and China equities dropped sharply over the week. Stocks started the week on a strong note helped by limited negative news flow regarding the Middle East over the weekend. Deepening tensions later in the week appeared to drain the gains, however. In particular, shares fell sharply on Thursday afternoon, following reports that a U.S. Navy destroyer had shot down a cruise missile apparently headed toward Israel. Reports of a drone attack on a U.S. base in Iraq also seemed to weigh on sentiment. “Fedspeak” that was arguably less dovish than recent remarks from policymakers may have also been at work. In particular, markets pulled back sharply after Powell stated that he saw no signs that the current stance of Fed policy would push the economy into a recession. Some upside economic surprises (retail sales, jobless claims) may have reinforced worries that rates would remain “higher for longer.” The yield on the US 10-year note nearly hit 5% intraday on Friday. Gold surged to nearly $2,000 while Bitcoin jumped towards $30k. Oil rose despite US easing sanctions on Venezuela.
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Most US equities indexes ended the week lower, although the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced modestly and cleared the 20,000 mark for the first time. The Russell 2000 Index recorded a second consecutive week of underperformance against the S&P 500 Index. Growth stocks posted a third consecutive week of outperformance versus value, thanks in part to gains in shares of Tesla (12%) and Alphabet (8.4%). On the macro-economic side, stagflation fears started to rise once again. Indeed, YoY CPI and PPI both accelerated. Meanwhile overall macro surprises disappointed for the fourth week in a row: on Thursday, the Labor Department reported a surprise jump in weekly initial jobless claims to a two-month high of 242,000.