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WEEKLY SUMMARY: Bonds, Bullion & Bitcoin surged. Stocks plunged
US equities indices finished lower for a 2nd straight week, as market sentiment was dented by mixed corporate earnings reports, geopolitical tensions and concerns about rising bond yields. It was a busy week for quarterly earnings reports, with nearly a third of the S&P 500 Index due to report, including Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon. Although most metrics reported by the companies showed solid growth and exceeded consensus expectations, markets seemed to pounce on indications of rising expenses, which weighed on shares. On the macro side, US real GDP grew at an annualized pace of 4.9% in Q3, led by strong consumer spending. Meanwhile, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index provided mixed evidence on whether inflation is moderating. After crossing the 5% threshold on Monday, the 10-year US Treasury yield moved lower and traded around 4.8% at the end of the week. Bitcoin surged midweek, topping $35,000 for the 1st time since May 2022, and held the gains. Spot Gold surged to $2000, its highest level since May and nearing record highs. Oil dropped over 4% this week, but Friday’s increased tensions in the Middle East pushed WTI back up to $86. The dollar ended the week very marginally higher. The STOXX Europe 600 Index ended 0.96% lower. As expected, ECB left rates unchanged. Equities in China rose as an improvement in industrial profits suggested that the economy may be stabilizing.
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Most of US equities indices rose to record highs, as investors wagered that a “red sweep” (Republicans winning Presidency, Senate and Congress) would result in faster earnings growth, looser regulations, and lower corporate taxes. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index surged 8.57% for the week but was the sole benchmark to remain out of record territory. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones hit 44.000 for the first time while the S&P 500 closed just shy of 6,000, up 4.7% for the week, its best weekly gain in almost a year. On Thursday, the Fed announced a 25bps rate cut, its first easing move since cutting rates by 50 basis points in mid-September. In terms of economic data, the October ISM services sector activity came in at 56.0, well above expectations and the best reading since August 2022. U.S. Treasuries generated positive returns heading into Friday, as yields largely ended lower than where they ended the previous week.