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WEEKLY SUMMARY: WORST MONTH SINCE LEHMAN
The major US equity indexes endured a 4th consecutive week of losses, as disappointing earnings results from Amazon.com (-14%) and growth fears weighed. The S&P 500 Index closed at the lowest level of 2022, down roughly 14% from its recent peak. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite and small-cap Russell 2000 Index fell further into bear markets, down roughly 24% from their highs. Energy stocks outperformed within the S&P 500 after Russia announced that it was cutting off natural gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria. The week’s economic data increased “stagflation” risk as US GDP for 1Q contracted at an annualized rate of 1.4%, well below consensus expectations of a roughly 1.0% expansion, while the yoy headline PCE measure advanced to a 40-year high of 6.6% (but missed estimates). After decreasing early in the week, the yield on the US 10-year ended near where it began. In Europe, equities pulled back on concerns about slowing economic growth, high inflation, and tightening monetary policy. Encouraging quarterly earnings reports and French President Macron being reelected may have helped to moderate these losses. Core eurozone bond yields fell, as mounting concerns about inflationary pressures and weakening economic growth appeared to increase demand for high-quality government bonds. Stocks in Japan fell over the week. The BoJ’s “uber dovish” decision sent the yen near a 20-year low of JPY 130.39 against the U.S. dollar, compared with the prior week’s JPY 128.47.
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Most of US equities indices rose to record highs, as investors wagered that a “red sweep” (Republicans winning Presidency, Senate and Congress) would result in faster earnings growth, looser regulations, and lower corporate taxes. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index surged 8.57% for the week but was the sole benchmark to remain out of record territory. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones hit 44.000 for the first time while the S&P 500 closed just shy of 6,000, up 4.7% for the week, its best weekly gain in almost a year. On Thursday, the Fed announced a 25bps rate cut, its first easing move since cutting rates by 50 basis points in mid-September. In terms of economic data, the October ISM services sector activity came in at 56.0, well above expectations and the best reading since August 2022. U.S. Treasuries generated positive returns heading into Friday, as yields largely ended lower than where they ended the previous week.