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WEEKLY SUMMARY: Equities pulled back on rates and Russia worries
US equity large-cap indexes suffered their 2nd consecutive week of declines as high inflation and worries over a Russian invasion of Ukraine weighed on sentiment. Defensive sectors outperformed within the S&P 500 Index. Conflicting signals on whether Russian troops were preparing to cross the border with Ukraine appeared to whipsaw markets throughout the week. Contradictory signs from the Fed also seemed to foster volatility. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the Fed’s “credibility was on the line.” and that he expects a full percentage point of federal funds rate increases by July. However, FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, were also generally perceived as dovish. Some mixed economic data may have also lowered expectations for an aggressive rate hike at the March Fed meeting. Meanwhile, credit spreads moved wider during the week. Shares in Europe fell amid continuing geopolitical tensions over Ukraine and uncertainty about monetary policy. Chinese markets rose as supportive comments from government officials and lower-than-expected inflation data increased investors’ risk appetite. Gold spiked above $1,900 while cryptocurrencies tumbled by the end of the week.
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The S&P 500 closed at a fresh all-time high on Friday, rising for a 5th consecutive week, its longest weekly winning streak since 2024. This brings the index up +15% since the March 30 low, also marking April as the best month for stocks since November 2022. Stocks largely shrugged off the stream of sometimes conflicting headlines about the war in the Middle East and a surprisingly hawkish Federal Reserve policy meeting to post solid gains in most major indexes. Large-cap stocks outpaced small-caps, and value outperformed growth. Five of the “Mag 7” companies reported earnings, with financial results generally meeting or exceeding expectations for these bellwether firms. Meanwhile, major central banks keep rates on hold amid war uncertainty.