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WEEKLY SUMMARY: Equities pulled back on rates and Russia worries
US equity large-cap indexes suffered their 2nd consecutive week of declines as high inflation and worries over a Russian invasion of Ukraine weighed on sentiment. Defensive sectors outperformed within the S&P 500 Index. Conflicting signals on whether Russian troops were preparing to cross the border with Ukraine appeared to whipsaw markets throughout the week. Contradictory signs from the Fed also seemed to foster volatility. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the Fed’s “credibility was on the line.” and that he expects a full percentage point of federal funds rate increases by July. However, FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, were also generally perceived as dovish. Some mixed economic data may have also lowered expectations for an aggressive rate hike at the March Fed meeting. Meanwhile, credit spreads moved wider during the week. Shares in Europe fell amid continuing geopolitical tensions over Ukraine and uncertainty about monetary policy. Chinese markets rose as supportive comments from government officials and lower-than-expected inflation data increased investors’ risk appetite. Gold spiked above $1,900 while cryptocurrencies tumbled by the end of the week.
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Most US equities indexes ended the week lower, although the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced modestly and cleared the 20,000 mark for the first time. The Russell 2000 Index recorded a second consecutive week of underperformance against the S&P 500 Index. Growth stocks posted a third consecutive week of outperformance versus value, thanks in part to gains in shares of Tesla (12%) and Alphabet (8.4%). On the macro-economic side, stagflation fears started to rise once again. Indeed, YoY CPI and PPI both accelerated. Meanwhile overall macro surprises disappointed for the fourth week in a row: on Thursday, the Labor Department reported a surprise jump in weekly initial jobless claims to a two-month high of 242,000.