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Late gains helped the US main stock benchmarks to close in positive territory for the week after they briefly hit correction territory (down more than 10% from recent highs). The small-cap Russell 2000 Index lagged and ended the week down nearly 20% from its November peak, leaving it just outside of a bear market. The VIX index reached its highest level since the early months of the pandemic. Energy stocks rallied as international oil prices pushed above USD 90 per barrel, driven in part by the continued massing of Russian troops along the border with Ukraine. Fears that the Fed might be forced to raise short-term interest rates quickly to tame inflation weighed heavily on sentiment as the FOMC met during the week. Fed Chair Powell kept interest rates steady but left open the possibility that rates might rise more than 0.75% in 2022. Shares in Europe fell for a fourth consecutive week, extending declines on rising concerns about interest rate increases and escalating tensions between Russia and the West. This week saw US 2-year Treasury yields jump most since October 2019. The dollar soared higher for the 5th straight week (best week since June 2021), closing at its highest since July 2020. Cryptos stabilized.
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Most US equities indexes ended the week lower, although the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced modestly and cleared the 20,000 mark for the first time. The Russell 2000 Index recorded a second consecutive week of underperformance against the S&P 500 Index. Growth stocks posted a third consecutive week of outperformance versus value, thanks in part to gains in shares of Tesla (12%) and Alphabet (8.4%). On the macro-economic side, stagflation fears started to rise once again. Indeed, YoY CPI and PPI both accelerated. Meanwhile overall macro surprises disappointed for the fourth week in a row: on Thursday, the Labor Department reported a surprise jump in weekly initial jobless claims to a two-month high of 242,000.