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Late gains helped the US main stock benchmarks to close in positive territory for the week after they briefly hit correction territory (down more than 10% from recent highs). The small-cap Russell 2000 Index lagged and ended the week down nearly 20% from its November peak, leaving it just outside of a bear market. The VIX index reached its highest level since the early months of the pandemic. Energy stocks rallied as international oil prices pushed above USD 90 per barrel, driven in part by the continued massing of Russian troops along the border with Ukraine. Fears that the Fed might be forced to raise short-term interest rates quickly to tame inflation weighed heavily on sentiment as the FOMC met during the week. Fed Chair Powell kept interest rates steady but left open the possibility that rates might rise more than 0.75% in 2022. Shares in Europe fell for a fourth consecutive week, extending declines on rising concerns about interest rate increases and escalating tensions between Russia and the West. This week saw US 2-year Treasury yields jump most since October 2019. The dollar soared higher for the 5th straight week (best week since June 2021), closing at its highest since July 2020. Cryptos stabilized.
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Most of US equities indices rose to record highs, as investors wagered that a “red sweep” (Republicans winning Presidency, Senate and Congress) would result in faster earnings growth, looser regulations, and lower corporate taxes. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index surged 8.57% for the week but was the sole benchmark to remain out of record territory. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones hit 44.000 for the first time while the S&P 500 closed just shy of 6,000, up 4.7% for the week, its best weekly gain in almost a year. On Thursday, the Fed announced a 25bps rate cut, its first easing move since cutting rates by 50 basis points in mid-September. In terms of economic data, the October ISM services sector activity came in at 56.0, well above expectations and the best reading since August 2022. U.S. Treasuries generated positive returns heading into Friday, as yields largely ended lower than where they ended the previous week.