CHART OF THE WEEK: PANIC SELLING
Market sentiment is more bearish now than at March bottom…
WEEKLY SUMMARY
Rising interest rate fears and growth worries pushed the S&P 500 Index to its biggest decline since October 2020. US small caps and the Nasdaq declined the most. The Russell 2000 index had its worst week since June 2020. The Nasdaq index slumped roughly 7.5%, its biggest weekly drop since the start of the pandemic. Weakness in semiconductor shares weighed on technology stocks, while weakness in automakers and home improvement retailers dragged down the consumer discretionary sector. A more than 20% decline in Netflix shares following its fourth-quarter earnings report contributed to the indexes’ losses on Friday. Financial stocks JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs were hard hit as well. Shares in Europe ended lower, as expectations grew that the ECB would raise interest rates this year. In Fixed Income, the US jobs data appeared to result in the flattening of the Treasury yield curve. The US 10-year yield hit 1.90% on Wednesday—its highest level since late 2019—but fell back sharply in the wake of Thursday morning’s weaker-than-expected jobless claims report. The dollar ended the week higher - its best week in the last 5. Cryptocurrencies collapsed as Bitcoin hit $35k and Ethereum $2,500.
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Most of US equities indices rose to record highs, as investors wagered that a “red sweep” (Republicans winning Presidency, Senate and Congress) would result in faster earnings growth, looser regulations, and lower corporate taxes. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index surged 8.57% for the week but was the sole benchmark to remain out of record territory. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones hit 44.000 for the first time while the S&P 500 closed just shy of 6,000, up 4.7% for the week, its best weekly gain in almost a year. On Thursday, the Fed announced a 25bps rate cut, its first easing move since cutting rates by 50 basis points in mid-September. In terms of economic data, the October ISM services sector activity came in at 56.0, well above expectations and the best reading since August 2022. U.S. Treasuries generated positive returns heading into Friday, as yields largely ended lower than where they ended the previous week.