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WEEKLY SUMMARY: Cross-asset volatility jumped as oil prices surged
Major U.S. stock indexes finished the volatile week lower as investors digested escalating conflict in the Middle East in the wake of U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran, rising energy-driven inflation risks, and some mixed economic data. Oil prices surged amid concerns about potential supply disruptions and broader geopolitical spillovers. Uncertainty about the conflict’s duration and its potential impact on energy markets also drove U.S. Treasury trading, pushing yields higher as investors reassessed inflation risks and the outlook for Fed policy. The Dow and Small Caps were the biggest losers (down 3-4%) while Nasdaq (benefiting from some safe haven flows into the Mega-Caps) outperformed (still down 1-2% of the week). On the Macro side, US ISM data point to continued economic expansion while employment data send mixed signals. On Friday, the BLS reported that nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 in February, well below expectations for a gain of around 60,000, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%. Outside the US, the STOXX Europe 600 Index tumbled 5.55% (in EUR) over the week. The euro weakened as the dollar saw massive safe-haven flows Monday and Tuesday to end with its best weekly gain since October 2024. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index fell sharply over the week (-5.49%). The dollar's strength was enough to offset any safe-haven flows into precious metals which had a very tough week with silver and platinum hit hardest. Bitcoin is ending the week unchanged.
Have a great weekend
And happy women’s day !
Charles & Syz Research Lab
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