.png)
WEEKLY SUMMARY: Oil and bitcoin up; stocks and bonds down
U.S. stocks fell for a 3rd consecutive week as Middle East tensions and oil market volatility weighed on investor sentiment. Concerns about potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, stress in private credit markets, and trade policy uncertainty added to market pressure. The Dow Jones led losses (down about 2%) while the Nasdaq Composite declined less but still fell 1.26%. Recent U.S. data showed mixed signals on inflation and growth. Core CPI rose 0.2% in February (2.5% year over year), while headline CPI increased 0.3% monthly and 2.4% annually. Meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, core PCE, rose 0.4% in January, with the annual rate unexpectedly climbing to 3.1%, the highest since early 2024. U.S. economic growth was also revised lower, with Q4 GDP adjusted down to 0.7% annualized due to weaker exports, consumer spending, government spending, and investment. Housing data show modest improvement as affordability rises. US Treasuries yields rose amid geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns. Credit markets started to crack this week, with credit risk dramatically decoupling from equity risk. The STOXX Europe 600 Index declined over the week, slipping 0.47% in local currency terms as ECB signals it is prepared to react to higher energy prices. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index declined 3.24% as JGBs yields rose while Yen declined. Oil prices surged as traders priced in the risk of supply disruptions. The dollar and bitcoin were bid while gold sank.
Have a great week-end
Charles & Syz Research Lab
Disclaimer
This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.