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WEEKLY SUMMARY: Oil & hawkish fears spark bond bloodbath; stocks sink
U.S. equity indexes finished lower in a volatile week shaped by geopolitical tensions and resulting volatility in oil prices, persistent inflation concerns, and a somewhat hawkish interpretation of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy signals. The Dow Jones fared worst, declining 2.11%, followed by the Nasdaq, which shed 2.07%. The S&P MidCap 400 Index held up best but still fell 1.34%. Within the S&P 500 Index, energy was the best-performing sector by a wide margin as oil prices moved higher amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding Middle East supply risks. U.S. Treasury yields also mostly moved higher amid the heightened uncertainty, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rising to around 4.38% as of Friday afternoon. The Fed left rates unchanged, the second consecutive meeting with no change. Policymakers voted 11–1 on the decision. Updated forecasts from central bank officials showed a median estimate of one more rate cut for the year, unchanged from their prior projection. On the Macro front, US PPI accelerated in February, rising 0.7%, up from 0.5% in January and the highest reading since July 2025. Homebuilder sentiment, pending sales rose; new home sales slide to lowest since 2022. STOXX Europe 600 Index declined by 3.79% in local currency terms as the ECB warned of inflation risk as energy costs soared. Gold plummeted to seven weeks lows as the dollar rallied. Bitcoin found support around the $70,000 level.
Have a great week
Charles & Syz Research Lab
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