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WEEKLY SUMMARY : A week of crosscurrents: sticky inflation meets AI debt fears
US inflation accelerated to 3.7% in September as energy costs jumped, up from 3.4% for two months, with core CPI at 2.6% year on year versus 2.5% expected. Producer prices posted their biggest rise in 4½ years and retail sales beat expectations. October hike odds spiked, then faded after Mary Daly signalled no need to move at the 27–28 October meeting; markets now see a 91% chance of a December hike. On the geopolitical side, attacks around the Strait of Hormuz surged, with Iran stepping up strikes in response to the US blockade of its ports. Ukraine hit a Russian refinery after Kyiv abandoned the Trump-brokered energy ceasefire. Brent tested $110 and WTI traded at $101. Oil eased but recorded a small weekly gain amid Mideast supply focus. In equity markets, AI financing fears hit tech. CoreWeave’s slump triggered a global rout in AI stocks. On Friday the S&P 500 fell 1.09% to 7,659, the Russell 2000 dropped 1.72% and the Nasdaq 2.14%, leaving the S&P down about 2% on the week. In Fixed Income, the US 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.33% after the CPI report, then reversed sharply to a three-week low near 5.11%. In forex market, the euro touched $1.11, its weakest since May 2025. Even so, the dollar was headed for its first weekly decline in five weeks. Gold has been stuck in a $4,075–4,221 range and moved back above $4,200 on Friday as yields and the dollar eased. Bitcoin ended around $81k, essentially flat for the week.
Have a great weekend
Charles & Syz Research Lab
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