Charles-Henry Monchau

Chief Investment Officer

Chart #1 — 

Are we still in the early stages of a major cycle where silver outperforms US equities? 

 

Silver has broken through the key $50 resistance level and continues to set new all-time highs. The chart below, plotting silver relative to the S&P 500, suggests we may only be in the early phase of a broader capital rotation into hard assets.

Source:  Crescat, Tavi Costa, Bloomberg 


Chart #2 — 

The world’s largest silver producers 

 

Mexico remains the world’s top silver producer in 2024, followed by China and Peru. 



Source:  InvestyWise 

 


Chart #3 — 

Signs of irrational exuberance on US stocks?  

 

Despite lingering caution, investor positioning in US equities has reached euphoric levels, showing a widespread disregard for risk. The top 10 US mega-cap stocks now trade at 270% higher EV-to-GDP multiples than the 10 largest tech and telecom firms at the 2000 bubble peak. Similarly, the Buffett Indicator (total market cap-to-GDP) far exceeds dot-com era levels. 

Source: Bloomberg, Kevin Smith, Crescat Capital 

 

 


Chart #4 — 

Magnificent seven earnings growth is expected to slow down meaningfully going forward  

Analysts now expect earnings for the Magnificent 7 to grow by just +14% y/y in 3Q, half the pace of the prior quarter and well below the ~30% average of the past year. The silver lining, however, is that lower forecasts are easier to beat, as seen in previous quarters.



Source:  zerohedge.com


Chart #5 — 

One of the biggest threats to the entire AI boom is power

Morgan Stanley projects US data centre demand to reach ~57 GW by 2028, yet only 18–21 GW of capacity exists or is under construction, leaving a 36 GW shortfall. Without massive energy investment, the AI revolution may soon hit a hard ceiling. 


Source:  StockMarket.news


Chart #6 —

How fast is European sovereign debt growing?

Germany’s public debt has reached a new record high. Since 2000, its debt growth has matched Italy’s pace, even if Italy’s total debt level remains far higher. Relative to France or Spain, however, Germany’s position still appears comparatively stable. 


Source:  HolgerZ, Bloomberg 


Chart #7 — 

AI now writes more articles than humans

Oxford researchers estimate that AI-generated articles now outnumber human-written ones, rising from ~5% in 2020 to 52% by May 2025, and projected to exceed 90% next year. The main driver is cost. AI content costs under $0.01 per piece, versus $10–100 for humans. The growing risk, however, is that as AI increasingly trains on its own output, originality erodes and idea diversity fades. 


Source:  Axios Visuals 


Disclaimer

This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.

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