Charles-Henry Monchau

Chief Investment Officer

Chart #1 — 

The worst start of the year for the dollar since 1973

 



The US dollar experienced its most significant first half drop in over 50 years, as unpredictable policy changes and indications of a slowing economy undermined trust in the world’s primary reserve currency.
During the first half of 2025, the Dollar Index (DXY) dropped by 10.8%, reflecting a sharp decline against major developed-market currencies. The Greenback fell by 14.4% against the Swiss franc, 13.8% against the euro, and 9.7% against the British pound. Meanwhile, emerging-market currencies surged, marking some of their strongest performances in recent years. 

Source:  HolgerZ, Bloomberg

 


Chart #2 — 

Don't forget, FX effect is a very important component in total returns...  

As Jeroen Blokland, founder of True Insights, pointed out, although the S&P 500 Index is nearing record highs when measured in U.S. dollars, it has dropped by 11% from its February peak when viewed in euros.

The euro has climbed to its strongest level since September 2021, negatively impacting returns for investors using the euro as their base currency. 

Source:  Bloomberg, Jeroen Blokland 


Chart #3 — 

Here are the best performing S&P 500 stocks from the first half of 2025 

 

 Here’s the Top 3:

🥇 Palantir $PLTR +78.8%

🥈 NRG Energy $NRG +78.2%

🥉 Howmet $HWM +70.4% 


Chart #4 — 

Investors don’t believe in Fed independence anymore  

According to a recent survey by Deutsche Bank, just 16% of participants believe the Federal Reserve operates with full independence, while 25% think political influence is pushing the central bank toward cutting interest rates. 

Source:   DB thru Liz Abramowicz 


Chart #5 — 

The Swiss franc has appreciated against dollar by nearly 50% over the last 20 years 

An appreciating Swiss franc presents considerable difficulties for Swiss companies, especially exporters, by weakening their ability to compete on price internationally. This may squeeze corporate profit margins and weigh on Switzerland's economic growth.

It's also worth noting that the August 2011 peak of 1.3125 is approaching. If that level is breached, how might the Swiss National Bank respond? Heavy use of its balance sheet (at the risk of being pointed out by Trump as a currency manipulator) and/or negative interest rates? 

Source: Google Finance 


Chart #6 —

The IBM revival

The stock has surged over the past 18 months, surpassing its long-standing market capitalisation ceiling of around $250 billion, previously reached in 1999 and 2012. What’s behind this remarkable resurgence for the iconic firm? 

The turnaround is largely attributed to its effective pivot toward enterprise artificial intelligence (AI) and hybrid cloud technologies, strategic moves that have fuelled solid financial results and bolstered investor trust.

Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ 


Chart #7 — 

Who's holding bitcoin?  

Bitcoin ETFs, which saw one of the most successful ETF launches in U.S. history in January 2024, remain the largest institutional holders of bitcoin, with over 1.4 million coins—approximately 6.8% of the total 21 million supply.

Meanwhile, publicly traded companies hold approximately 855,000 bitcoins, making up around 4% of the fixed supply. 

Source:  CNBC 


Disclaimer

This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.

Read More

Straight from the Desk

Syz the moment

Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long.

Thinking out loud

Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts.

Follow us

Thinking out loud

Investing with intelligence

Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks