Charles-Henry Monchau

Chief Investment Officer

Chart #1 — 

European Central Bank trims interest rates after inflation dips below target

 

The European Central Bank (ECB) has reduced interest rates for the eighth time in a year, responding to a decline in inflation below the 2% threshold and continued economic strain caused by US tariffs. The deposit rate was lowered by 25 basis points to 2%, with the ECB emphasising that it is not committing to a predetermined policy trajectory.

Meanwhile, the ECB’s balance sheet contracted to €6.3 trillion. In its latest economic outlook, the central bank estimates that inflation will average 2% in 2025, lowering its previous estimate of 2.3% from March.

Notably, for the first time since September 2023, the ECB’s deposit rate has dropped below Germany’s inflation rate.

Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

 


Chart #2 — 

Gold and other commodities path have been diverging since November 2023

As of May 2025, gold prices grew by 25.0% since the beginning of the year, marking a stark difference from the broader downturn in commodity markets. The general commodity index declined by 9.0%, driven by a 12.9% drop in energy prices and a 5.9% decrease in food prices. Compared to pre-pandemic levels, gold was trading 153% higher, significantly outperforming the overall commodity index by 117%, energy by 138%, and food by 109%.

Source: Econovis on X 


Chart #3 — 

The Trump-Elon meltdown

 

The breakup between the world’s most powerful politician and the world’s richest man is unfolding in a way that reflects the surreal nature of our times: rapid, dramatic, and highly public, playing out through television broadcasts and their personal social media accounts. Tesla’s stock took a sharp 14% dive, wiping out $153 billion in market value and pushing the company’s worth below the $1 trillion mark.

Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg


Chart #4 — 

The US Treasury is supporting the bond market! 

On Tuesday, the US Treasury conducted its largest debt repurchase since the start of the buyback program, acquiring $10 billion in securities. In recent months, these buyback operations have shown a clear upward trend.

Source: Global Markets Investors


Chart #5 — 

Japan’s 30-year government bond yields should theoretically be even higher 

Japan’s 30-year government bond yield has climbed significantly in recent months, reaching 3%, matching the yield on German government bonds. However, this parity comes despite a stark contrast in debt levels: Germany’s government debt stands at 60% of GDP, while Japan’s exceeds 240%. Given the scale of Japan’s debt, its current yields remain disproportionately low.

Source: Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks on X


Chart #6 —

Amazon is going to invest 100 billion dollars this year

Amazon is on track to become the first company in history to surpass $100 billion in annual capital expenditures. Over half of that spending is allocated to building out its technology infrastructure. This raises a key question: how much growth potential does AWS still have ahead of it?

 

Source: Finchart


Chart #7 — 

Youtube number one in the US

YouTube has become the leading platform on US televisions, capturing 12.4% of total TV viewership and over 25% of streaming time. Last year, its combined advertising and subscription revenue exceeded $50 billion. If valued at the same 12x sales multiple as Netflix, YouTube on its own could be worth more than $700 billion.

Source: Vlad Investment Bastion, Goldman Investment Research


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