--- title: Geopolitics, Central Banks, and SpaceX IPO description: A weekly review of global equity markets for the period ending 12 June 2026, covering the impact of renewed US-Iran tensions and the ECB's first rate hike since 2023 on regional equity performance, the rotation away from mega-cap technology into financials and cyclicals, and the significance of the SpaceX IPO as a landmark moment for the AI infrastructure investment cycle. image: https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/PicWrap-1.png --- [![Syz Private banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Logo.png?width=140&name=Logo.png "Syz Private banking")](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Thinking** out loud [Subscribe](https://25733253.hs-sites-eu1.com/newsletter-signup?hsLang=en) [![Contact Us](https://hubspot-no-cache-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2) - [OUR SERVICES](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [ABOUT SYZ](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [CAREERS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [PRESS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Blog Homepage](https://blog.syzgroup.com) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Fixed Income Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [Equity Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [CONTACT](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [ENGLISH](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [FRANÇAIS](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Weekly Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Our Services](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [About Syz](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [Careers](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [Press](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Contact](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [English](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [Français](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Sign-up** for our newsletter This website uses cookies to enhance user navigation and to collect statistical data. 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[Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) ### Geopolitics, Central Banks, and SpaceX IPO A weekly review of global equity markets for the period ending 12 June 2026, covering the impact of renewed US-Iran tensions and the ECB's first rate hike since 2023 on regional equity performance, the rotation away from mega-cap technology into financials and cyclicals, and the significance of the SpaceX IPO as a landmark moment for the AI infrastructure investment cycle. [**Jakub Dubaniewicz**](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/jakub-dubaniewicz) **-** **Monday, 06/15/2026** | - [![Pdf](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/pdf%20(1).png)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/Equity%20Weekly%203-9%20April%202026) - - - - ## **The Chart of the week** **SpaceX is valued like the Aeros** **pace Index** ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Jun-15-2026-09-08-55-3470-AM.png?width=734&height=558&name=image-png-Jun-15-2026-09-08-55-3470-AM.png) Source: [https://leverageshares.com/en-eu/market-insights/](https://leverageshares.com/en-eu/market-insights/)   ## **What happened last week?**   **Global markets** Global equities recovered cautiously last week, with MSCI AC World gaining 0.6% in USD terms, but the aggregate masks a more interesting story beneath. Markets spent the first half of the week under pressure as fresh US strikes on Iranian targets revived fears of a protracted conflict and pushed crude higher, before a sharp reversal on Thursday as diplomatic signals from Washington and Tehran pointed toward a potential deal. The European Central Bank added its own plot twist, hiking rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, its first increase since 2023, acknowledging that the Iran-driven energy shock is feeding durably into inflation. The combination of geopolitical whiplash and a central bank pivoting back to tightening made for a volatile and ultimately inconclusive week at the index level. The more consequential development was the rotation underway beneath the surface. The AI and mega-cap technology trade that dominated the first half of 2026 continued to fragment, with software and the largest platform names remaining under selling pressure even as semiconductors staged a sharp rebound. The SpaceX IPO on 12 June played a central role: fears that institutional investors were funding their allocations by liquidating existing tech positions had amplified the prior week's selloff, and once the deal priced and traded up strongly on debut, that overhang cleared. Banks, materials, and smaller companies were the week's real winners, underscoring a broadening of market leadership that investors have been anticipating for months. **US** The S&P 500 added 0.7% for the week, but the index-level number masks an unusually wide dispersion of outcomes beneath. The Nasdaq 100 recovered 2.4%, driven almost entirely by the semiconductor rebound, while the Russell 2000 outperformed at 3.3%. Small cap strength this week was not a rates story; it was a positioning story. With capital having concentrated relentlessly into a handful of mega-cap AI names through the first half of the year, the unwind in that trade freed up flows that found their way into the parts of the market that had been most neglected. Banks were among the week's strongest performers, with regional lenders in particular responding positively to the prospect of a steeper yield curve. Materials also outperformed sharply, aided by metal price strength. Within technology, the story was one of stark divergence. Semiconductors surged as the SpaceX IPO-related funding pressure cleared and buyers returned, but software remained under heavy selling, with the expanded tech-software complex down over 5% on the week. Cybersecurity names also continued to de-rate. The implication is that the market is not abandoning the AI theme, but it is re-pricing it, favouring the hardware and infrastructure layer over the application and security layer where near-term revenue visibility is less certain. The week ended with the SpaceX debut providing a symbolic capstone: the AI infrastructure era now has its marquee public listing, and the market welcomed it emphatically. **Europe** The STOXX Europe 600 gained 1.3% in local currency terms, but the aggregate conceals a week of striking divergence. The ECB's decision to raise rates by 25 basis points on Thursday - its first hike since 2023 - was the defining event, and its impact played out very differently depending on where in Europe you were invested. For Spain and Italy, whose equity markets are heavily weighted toward banks, the hike was unambiguously positive: the IBEX 35 surged 8.4% and the FTSE MIB added 3.6% as investors priced in a more sustained period of net interest margin support. For Germany, it was the opposite. The DAX fell 0.4%, caught between rising energy costs, a softer growth outlook, and a central bank that is now tightening into a weakening industrial cycle. The same policy decision that rewarded southern European financials served as a further headwind to the export-oriented manufacturers that anchor the German index. The ECB's revised projections reinforced the uncomfortable backdrop. With headline inflation now forecast at 3.0% for 2026 and GDP growth revised lower, the Governing Council is effectively signalling that the Iran-driven energy shock is not transient, and that it intends to respond accordingly. The implications for European equity allocators are meaningful: the rate-cut tailwind that supported the market earlier in the year has reversed, and the intra-regional divergence between financially exposed southern markets and industrially exposed northern ones looks set to persist. Consumer staples and discretionary names held up reasonably well across the continent, offering some evidence that domestic demand has not yet buckled under the weight of higher prices and tighter policy. **Rest of the world** Asia was the week's weak spot. The Taiwan TAIEX fell 2.3% and MSCI Japan lost 1.6%, both continuing to digest the prior week's semiconductor-driven shock. The Korea market stabilised but only modestly, with the recovery tentative after the KOSPI had plunged more than 8% in the prior session as fears grew around the AI cycle. The sharp divergence between the US semiconductor rebound and the continued softness in the TAIEX is instructive: US-listed ETF flows recovered quickly as the SpaceX overhang cleared, but the earnings revision cycle for Asian chip producers, particularly in memory, moves more slowly, and investors remained cautious about re-engaging aggressively. MSCI EM was flat in aggregate, with the weakness in North Asia offset by a 2.4% gain in Brazil, supported by commodity price strength, and a broadly stable performance elsewhere. China slipped 0.7% and Japan's underperformance stood out given the broadly more constructive global tone by Thursday and Friday. For Japan, yen dynamics and the Bank of Japan's policy trajectory remain a source of uncertainty: imported energy inflation complicates the case for continued accommodation, while a stronger yen would weigh on the export-oriented corporates that dominate the index. These cross-currents help explain why Japanese equities failed to participate in the Thursday-Friday recovery that lifted other markets. The broader Asian picture reflects a region caught between strong structural tailwinds from AI semiconductor demand and short-term vulnerability to geopolitical shocks, rate-cycle pivots in the West, and the concentration risks embedded in indices dominated by a handful of chipmakers. --- ## **Our view on equity** **Equity asset class** We maintain equity exposure at the upper end of our neutral allocation range. **Earnings** After a strong Q1 earnings season and upward guidance revisions, 2026 earnings expectations have been revised higher across all major regions and are now running at double-digit growth rates. Operating margins have reached all-time highs and continue to accelerate. **Valuation** Although equity prices have reached new record highs, forward P/E multiples have edged lower because EPS growth has outpaced share price gains. Valuations remain above historical averages in the S&P 500 and Nikkei, while the STOXX Europe 600 and Asia ex-Japan look relatively more attractive. **Risks** The main risk to this constructive view is a renewed rise in rates and inflation expectations, which could compress multiples and pressure valuations.   --- #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) #### [Central Banks Deliver on a Well-Flagged Hawkish Pivot](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/central-banks-deliver-on-a-well-flagged-hawkish-pivot?hsLang=en) Fed and BoJ hikes, an oil-driven inflation scare, and an AI-safety debate drove sector rotation across global equities over the past week. **[Jakub Dubaniewicz](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/jakub-dubaniewicz?hsLang=en)** | 21/09/2026 [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) #### [Oil, Inflation and Trade Tensions Rattle Equities as Memory Chips Hold the Line](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/oil-inflation-and-trade-tensions-rattle-equities-as-memory-chips-hold-the-line?hsLang=en) Global equities fell on oil, inflation and trade risk, while a Korea-led memory-chip rally offset losses in EM and rotated tech away from Nvidia. **[Jakub Dubaniewicz](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/jakub-dubaniewicz?hsLang=en)** | 14/09/2026 [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) #### [Payrolls Surprise and Middle East Tensions Revive the Rate Hike Debate](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/payrolls-surprise-and-middle-east-tensions-revive-the-rate-hike-debate?hsLang=en) Global equities were roughly flat over the week to 4 September 2026, as a much stronger than expected US August jobs report and renewed US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices and bond yields higher, reviving the case for a September Fed rate hike. The repricing hit European equities harder than the US, with German and French markets underperforming on rate- and energy-sensitive exposure, while banks and energy stocks outperformed globally. Within US tech, a sharp divergence emerged inside the Magnificent Seven, driven by company-specific news at Meta and Nvidia rather than a shared theme. Brazil was the standout market of the week, rallying on rate-cut expectations and firmer oil prices. **[Jakub Dubaniewicz](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/jakub-dubaniewicz?hsLang=en)** | 07/09/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. [Discover more](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment?hsLang=en) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. 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