Charles-Henry Monchau

Chief Investment Officer


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WEEKLY SUMMARY: The US yield curve tumbles on hawkish Fed speaks 

 

US equities gave back a portion of the previous week’s strong gains and closed modestly lower for the week. Growth stocks lagged value-oriented shares. The energy sector underperformed, however, as European oil and natural gas inventories reached near-peak levels. Dispelled reports of a Russian missile strike on Polish territory sparked a brief sell-off on Tuesday, but trading volumes remained muted for much of the week. The U.S Treasury yield curve inverted further during the week, driving the inversion in the two-year/10-year curve segment to its deepest level in over 40 years. Short-term U.S. Treasuries repriced to higher yields, particularly after James Bullard said that the Fed’s terminal policy rate should reach a minimum level of 5% and may need to go as high as 7% to achieve the central bank’s inflation objectives. There were however some “dip buying” in longer maturities, which helped push long-end yields downward. In Europe, the STOXX Europe 600 Index ended modestly higher in local currency terms. Euro bond yields held near recent highs as ECB Lagarde said interest rates need to rise more as policymakers seek to fight inflation. In the UK, Finance minister Hunt raises taxes but delays large spending cuts. UK inflation hit a 41-year high of 11.1% in October. In Asia, mainland Chinese stocks were modestly positive for the week while Japanese stocks fell. The dollar rose while cryptos were stable. 

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