Fed IRP (Interest Rate Probabilities) is telling us ~¾ of a hike is priced in for Dec2026.
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Half now see no cuts this year (and risks are clearly tilted to this group continuing to grow given inertial nature of these forecasts). Source: Nick Timiraos
Source: Shanghai Macro Strategist
$237 billion in purchases since December 2025. Total holdings now sit at $4.4 trillion, the highest since July 2024. More striking: Treasuries now make up 65.9% of the Fed's total assets, the highest share since March 2008. That's a central bank stepping in to hold up a bond market under pressure from record fiscal spending. The question is how long it can keep doing it before the balance sheet becomes the story. Source: Bloomberg, Arbor Data Science

