Net effect of slowbalization is growing stagflation risk
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Key statement points: - High-level U.S.-Iran talks concluded in Switzerland. - Working groups formed on nuclear issues, sanctions and dispute resolution. - Direct communication line established to avoid incidents in the Strait of Hormuz. - De-confliction cell created to support the Lebanon ceasefire. - Technical talks to continue this week in Burgenstock, Switzerland. Iran's FM Araghchi said mediated talks involving Pakistan and Qatar delivered “major progress” on the Lebanon conflict, including waived oil and petrochemical export restrictions, lifting of the blockade, partial release of frozen assets and a reconstruction plan launched for Iran. He cautioned that the first “real test” will be the operational rollout of the Lebanon deconfliction cell. Source: Bull Theory
Andy Burnham now positioned as a potential successor, setting Britain on track for its seventh prime minister in just a decade.
➡️ Who is he? Andy Burnham, 56, is the Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, the "King of the North," who built his profile on regional regeneration ("Manchesterism"). ➡️ How can he become the UK new PM? On June 19 he won the Makerfield by-election with nearly 55%, clearing his path to challenge PM Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership. Under party rules he needs 81 MPs to trigger a contest; the UK system would let him become PM without a general election. ➡️ How his policy could diverge from Starmer? Burnham sits left of the Starmer–Reeves administration. He has vowed to put energy, housing, water and transport under "stronger public control" and backs nationalising Thames Water. The market-relevant point: he previously said the UK must stop being "in hock to the bond market" and floated ~£40bn of extra borrowing, with defence spending outside the fiscal rules. The core divergence is a looser fiscal stance versus Reeves's self-imposed rules. ➡️Could the UK face another fiscal crisis? This is a real tail risk, partly priced, but most analysts see a Truss-style blowup as unlikely rather than negligible. Bear case: the UK has the G7's highest borrowing costs, long gilts above 5%, and minimal headroom; the by-election win push 10-year yields up, and some warn markets underestimate the risk of Burnham testing the rules. The 2022 Truss episode is the reference point. A drawn-out contest adds a risk premium, and the chancellor pick (Number 11) matters more than Number 10. Mitigants: Burnham is walking back his rhetoric, now backing the fiscal rules; the Truss episode itself disciplines any successor; and oil, not politics, is currently the main gilt driver. Net: not a base-case crisis, but a credible left-tail — most likely triggered by a disorderly transition plus an unfunded Autumn Budget. Watch items: long-end gilts, the gilt-Bund spread, and sterling on escalation. Key markers ahead: whether 81 MPs line up, transition speed, and the prospective Treasury team.