2 Mar 2026

Goldman estimates the following effects on the fair value of oil prices in scenarios for one-month disruptions to oil flows through the Strait:

+$15 for a full one-month closure if there are no offsets (e.g. utilization of spare pipeline capacity, SPR release) +$12 for a full one-month closure if all estimated 4mb/d spare pipeline capacity is used +$10 for a full one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used and global SPRs are released for one month at a 2mb/d pace +$4 for a partial 50% one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used +$1 for a partial 25% one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used Source: Goldman Sachs, zerohedge

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