13 Feb 2024

Headline CPI and Core CPI came out hotter than expected. SuperCore is the hottest since May 2023

-> Headline CPI: o Consumer prices rose 0.3% MoM (more than the 0.2% expected), driving the YOY change to 3.1% YoY versus 2.9% expected. Still, the decline from the +3.4% shows the disinflation trend is in place o Under the hood, food and Energy services costs jumped MoM along with transportation services -> Core CPI: o The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4% MoM in January, the biggest jump since April 2023. The shelter index increased 0.6% MoM in January and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy. o Core CPI fell below 4.00% YoY for the first time since May 2021, but the +3.86% YoY print was hotter than the 3.7% expected. -> SuperCore CPI: o Core CPI Services Ex-Shelter index soared 0.7% MoM (the biggest jump since September 2022), driving the YoY change up to +4.4% - the hottest since May 2023 (see chart below). Our take: The disinflation trend remains in place. However, the “easy part” of the disinflationary process is behind. Buoyant final demand might sustain some upward pressures on prices. This data raises the odds that the Fed will stay put in March. Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com


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