Here’s how many times the word “AI” has been said on the earnings calls of some of the biggest companies in the world
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https://lnkd.in/eMkGJKyi Source: Jack Farley @JackFarley96, FT
A great FT article on how OpenAI partners amassed $100bn debt pile to fund its ambitions.
The Commitments: $250B in cloud compute from Microsoft $38B from Amazon 36 gigawatts of contracted capacity All tied to a total deal value up to $1.8 trillion HSBC’s estimate: OpenAI will owe ~$620B per year in data-center rent once everything ramps… and only a third of that capacity is online by 2030. 🔢 The Math (and the Problem) By 2030: Cumulative rental costs: $792B (→ $1.4T by 2033) Projected free cash flow: $282B Cash from Nvidia/AMD: $26B Undrawn debt: $24B Liquidity: $17.5B Even after stacking every possible dollar, there’s still a $207B hole — plus the $10B safety buffer HSBC thinks they need. 💥 And here's where it gets tricky 👇 HSBC’s model already assumes everything goes right: 3B OpenAI users by 2030 (44% of all adults outside China) Paid conversion rising from 5% → 10% 2% share of global digital ads $386B in annual enterprise AI revenue Even under that fantasy scenario, OpenAI still can’t pay the bills. HSBC’s suggested “solution”? OpenAI may need to walk away from its data-center commitments and hope Microsoft/Amazon “show flexibility.” Translation: The economics don’t work — unless everyone politely pretends the contracts aren’t real. And yet this is the company anchoring a $500B Stargate project and driving hundreds of billions in AI infrastructure spending. If this is what the best case looks like… imagine the base case. My take: be very careful with AI plays which are asset-heavy. They might disappoint in terms of shareholders' returns in the years to come. Do you remember the Telecom bubble? The long-term winners have been the asset-light companies. The asset heavy companies never recover. Source: Hedgie on X, FT

