Immune SPX?
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Short exposure to US equity index and ETF products just hit 13% of total gross exposure. It is nearly double where it was before COVID and the highest reading in 5 years. The S&P 500 is near all time highs. Bond yields are at 2007 levels. And Japan's bond market is cracking. Korean retail investors are borrowing record amounts to chase stocks higher. Retail is buying and Hedge funds are shorting. One of them is about to be very wrong. Chart: Bull Theory on X
If you had invested $10,000 in the Nasdaq 100 ETF $QQQ at the PEAK of the dot-com bubble in March 2000, your investment would be worth around $61,650 today — a gain of +516%, or +7.2% annualised. And that’s despite navigating through 9/11, the 2001–2002 recession, the Global Financial Crisis, COVID-19, and major geopolitical conflicts including Russia-Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East. As Warren Buffett famously said: “Never bet against America.” Source chart: Rand Group
SK Hynix alone now commands a weighting equivalent to Tencent and Alibaba combined, after more than doubling in market value this year. Together with TSMC, the 3 chipmakers account for more than 25% of the entire index and have contributed over 70% of its gains so far in 2026. This is reminiscent of late 2020, when Chinese companies accounted for more than 40% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. When Chinese stocks peaked in February 2021 and subsequently collapsed, the broader EM index entered a 15-16 month bear market, falling ~50% from peak to trough. Even emerging market indexes are extremely concentrated. Source: Global markets Investors, Bloomberg Opinion

