Despite renewed Iranian attacks, regional crude exports excluding Iran are holding at roughly 75% of pre-war levels, down from a late-September peak near 95%. Yet here’s the surprise: Average flows over October 1–10 remained above September’s average—and well above August’s. The disruption is making shipments more erratic: busy tanker crossings followed by quiet days. Kuwait is struggling most. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq are proving more resilient, with bypass routes providing crucial support. But the risks remain clear: continued attacks could disrupt both Hormuz and Red Sea traffic. The market signal to watch? Physical premiums for Middle Eastern crude have fallen to a near 2½-month low. For now, the physical market is signalling less scarcity—even as the security headlines worsen. Source: Javier Blas, Bloomberg

Daily tanker rates have surged to $1.068 million for voyages to India, $906,000 to China and $904,000 to Japan. Meanwhile, at least 10 empty very large crude carriers, alongside several Suezmax tankers, have stopped or reversed course while approaching Fujairah in the UAE amid escalating Iranian attacks. This threatens a key workaround that has helped Persian Gulf oil exports recover toward prewar levels, as shuttle tankers carry crude through the Strait of Hormuz to larger vessels waiting outside the waterway. The system is becoming harder to sustain as tanker availability tightens, ship-to-ship transfers keep vessels occupied for longer, and rising security risks make routes through the region more costly. If empty supertankers continue retreating, fewer receiving vessels could be available, forcing shuttle tankers to remain occupied longer and slowing crude shipments. The disruption comes as tanker availability is already tight, pushing shipping costs to record levels. The risk for the global economy is no longer just higher oil prices, but whether enough tankers will be willing and available to move the oil. Source: Global Markets Investor

Saudi Arabia has announced plans to expand its East–West pipeline, a critical route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. Its nominal capacity is 7 million barrels per day, although it is probably operating closer to 6 million after a September attack destroyed a pumping station. The immediate fix? Convert an existing natural gas pipeline to carry crude. Within 7–8 weeks, Saudi Aramco could add 1.2 million barrels per day of capacity. But the relief would be temporary: the line must return to gas service by May to supply power stations during the summer. Saudi officials have not identified the pipeline. One possibility is the old IPSA line: a 48-inch, roughly 1,500-kilometre pipeline built in the 1980s that runs largely parallel to the East–West route towards Yanbu. Saudi Arabia seized it after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 and later incorporated it into its Master Gas System. That identification remains a hypothesis. The longer-term ambition is bigger: raise East–West capacity to around 10 million barrels per day within 2–3 years, mainly by upgrading pumping capacity. The strategic message is clear: Riyadh wants more of its oil exports to reach global markets without passing through Hormuz. Source: Javier Blas