12 Nov 2025

🚀 Morgan Stanley: “The AI Memory Super Cycle Has Arrived — and It’s Unlike Anything We’ve Seen Before.”

Morgan Stanley says the new AI-driven memory super cycle will far surpass any past cycle — in scale, speed, and earnings power. 💡 Here’s what’s different this time: Led by AI data centers and cloud giants, not consumer devices. Price sensitivity is gone. Memory is now a strategic must-have, not a cost item. HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) demand is exploding, squeezing traditional DRAM supply. 📈 The numbers are jaw-dropping: Q4 server DRAM contract prices up ~70% (vs. 30% expected). DDR5 spot prices +336% since September. NAND up 20–30% — and still rising amid severe shortages. Enterprise SSD demand expected to surge 50%+ YoY by 2026. 🏭 Suppliers in control: SK hynix and Samsung now hold unprecedented pricing power. Morgan Stanley remains Overweight on both, expecting record profits and new share price highs. 🔥 The key insight: “This isn’t a typical memory cycle. It’s a structural shift — driven by AI inference workloads and hyperscaler demand. Earnings, not valuations, will define the peak.” 💰 Even after massive price hikes, memory is still below its last cycle peak ($1/Gb vs. $1.25 in 2018). Morgan Stanley sees further upside as AI capex accelerates. 📊 Bottom line: This AI memory super cycle is longer, stronger, and more profitable than any before. Morgan Stanley expects 2026–27 earnings 30–50% above market consensus for SK hynix and Samsung. “We’re in uncharted territory — this is not just a cycle. It’s a paradigm shift.”

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