One reason for the skepticism: Anthropic token prices have tumbled to all time low
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+46% QoQ. Profitable (adjusted). Cash-flow positive. $1.70 of revenue per $1 of compute. Few companies in history have printed a quarter like this. So why is the perp future on Binance down 14% from its high? 📉 Because markets price the slope, not the level. → Monthly run-rate growth: ~33% (Jan–Jul) vs 3–7% (Aug–Sep) → $100bn by year-end now needs Q4 to roughly double that pace → Token prices have halved in a month → Usage up, spend flat (Ramp data) → OpenAI is back, and it’s now a two-horse race → “Adjusted” profit, with $518bn of compute commitments ahead The key question: Can volume grow faster than prices fall? What to watch: the S-1 (~25 Oct), token prices, Q4 run rate, credit spreads. Spectacular numbers. Harder questions.
Those bonds were issued in June at 9.625%. That’s an increase of nearly 5 percentage points in four months in the yield investors demand to hold its unsecured debt. The figures behind the move: ▪️ More than $35 billion raised this year. ▪️ Around $52 billion in debt and lease obligations. ▪️ $640 million in net interest expense last quarter—roughly a quarter of revenue. ▪️ A $104 billion backlog, with revenue dependent on infrastructure delivery and customer payments. Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya shared the yield chart, warning of a potential private credit bubble linked to AI. According to figures he cited, private lenders charge AI borrowers spreads of 6.2 percentage points, compared with 6.1 points for other borrowers. CoreWeave’s backlog has grown. So has the yield on its debt. Source: Hedgie

