--- title: Silver short squeeze in one chart: description: "Silver (cash) - Silver (Dec'25) futures spread. Huge Backwardation as PAPER SCRAMBLES TO FIND METAL ! The spot/future basis on Silver is going crazy because the London market has little metal available for delivery ‼️\n\nThe lease rate for 1 month, 3M and 1Y is adjusted by USD interest rates so in normal circumstances it is near 0.2%, reflecting only the normal storage and insurance costs of silver. \nIt is now an inverted market, with London spot way above futures. Overnight lease is 100% annualized, 2 weeks 25%, 1 months 11%, 3 months 8% and 1y 4.1%, which is very abnormal ‼️ \n\nSpot in London trades above NY futures, liquidity is vanishing, and shorts are paying eye-watering borrow to survive the roll. \n\n➡️ As such, overnight borrowing costs have spiked to triple-digit annualized in the tightest moments. \n\n😨 So what is going on? As Hinza Cerny explained on X: \n\nTraders are literally booking transatlantic cargo slots. Estimated 15–30 million oz are being lined up to fly/sail from New York to London to capture the premium. Physical arbitrage in real time.\n\nSure, there might be plenty of Silver on COMEX (roughly 526 moz sitting there according to estimates). But this is on paper - until they’re moved, cleared, insured, and accepted. Logistics, brands, and time matter. \n\nThe context: \nSUPPLY >>>> LBMA London vault silver is 24,581 tonnes (~790 moz) as of end-September 2025 — materially below the 2020–2021 highs. The “float” that actually trades is a fraction of total stocks.\n\nDEMAND shock on the other side >>> India’s imports nearly doubled in September despite record prices. It’s so tight in India that major silver ETF platforms paused new lump-sum inflows to protect investors from extreme premiums. \n·\nPrice action: silver has ripped to all-time/high-water marks in this move, riding the hard-asset bid. \n\nThis is what a real squeeze looks like:\n– Spot > futures (London premium)\n– Borrow explodes\n– Cargo doors open\n– Paper scrambles to find metal\n\n“Will scrap save the day?” Not overnight. Recycling lags price and takes time to hit the market. Logistics are slow; psychology is fast.\n\nWatch these signals:\n– London–NY spread (does it compress?)\n– LBMA vault data (monthly drift)\n– COMEX registered outflows to London (weekly tells)\n– ETP inventory changes (are bars moving?)\n\n·Beware ! Volatility will be savage. Spreads can snap back if metal arrives… or they can widen if it doesn’t.\n\nRemember 1980? Different era, same lesson: attempts to control price fail when physical reality refuses to cooperate. This time, industry demand + sovereign fear + retail conviction = a tougher opponent\n\nSource: zerohedge, Honza Černý @honzacern1" image: https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/8-Oct-13-2025-03-41-37-8164-PM.jpg --- [![Syz Private banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Logo.png?width=140&name=Logo.png "Syz Private banking")](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Thinking** out loud [Subscribe](https://25733253.hs-sites-eu1.com/newsletter-signup?hsLang=en) [![Contact Us](https://hubspot-no-cache-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2) - [OUR SERVICES](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [ABOUT SYZ](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [CAREERS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [PRESS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Blog Homepage](https://blog.syzgroup.com) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Fixed Income Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [Equity Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [CONTACT](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [ENGLISH](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [FRANÇAIS](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Weekly Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Our Services](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [About Syz](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [Careers](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [Press](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Contact](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [English](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [Français](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Sign-up** for our newsletter This website uses cookies to enhance user navigation and to collect statistical data. 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This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. 13 Oct 2025 - - - #### Silver short squeeze in one chart: Silver (cash) - Silver (Dec'25) futures spread. Huge Backwardation as PAPER SCRAMBLES TO FIND METAL ! The spot/future basis on Silver is going crazy because the London market has little metal available for delivery ‼️ The lease rate for 1 month, 3M and 1Y is adjusted by USD interest rates so in normal circumstances it is near 0.2%, reflecting only the normal storage and insurance costs of silver. It is now an inverted market, with London spot way above futures. Overnight lease is 100% annualized, 2 weeks 25%, 1 months 11%, 3 months 8% and 1y 4.1%, which is very abnormal ‼️ Spot in London trades above NY futures, liquidity is vanishing, and shorts are paying eye-watering borrow to survive the roll. ➡️ As such, overnight borrowing costs have spiked to triple-digit annualized in the tightest moments. 😨 So what is going on? As Hinza Cerny explained on X: Traders are literally booking transatlantic cargo slots. Estimated 15–30 million oz are being lined up to fly/sail from New York to London to capture the premium. Physical arbitrage in real time. Sure, there might be plenty of Silver on COMEX (roughly 526 moz sitting there according to estimates). But this is on paper - until they’re moved, cleared, insured, and accepted. Logistics, brands, and time matter. The context: SUPPLY \>\>\>\> LBMA London vault silver is 24,581 tonnes (~790 moz) as of end-September 2025 — materially below the 2020–2021 highs. The “float” that actually trades is a fraction of total stocks. DEMAND shock on the other side \>\>\> India’s imports nearly doubled in September despite record prices. It’s so tight in India that major silver ETF platforms paused new lump-sum inflows to protect investors from extreme premiums. · Price action: silver has ripped to all-time/high-water marks in this move, riding the hard-asset bid. This is what a real squeeze looks like: – Spot \> futures (London premium) – Borrow explodes – Cargo doors open – Paper scrambles to find metal “Will scrap save the day?” Not overnight. Recycling lags price and takes time to hit the market. Logistics are slow; psychology is fast. Watch these signals: – London–NY spread (does it compress?) – LBMA vault data (monthly drift) – COMEX registered outflows to London (weekly tells) – ETP inventory changes (are bars moving?) ·Beware ! Volatility will be savage. Spreads can snap back if metal arrives… or they can widen if it doesn’t. Remember 1980? Different era, same lesson: attempts to control price fail when physical reality refuses to cooperate. This time, industry demand + sovereign fear + retail conviction = a tougher opponent Source: zerohedge, Honza Černý @honzacern1 [#Commodities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) ![Silver short squeeze in one chart:](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/8-Oct-13-2025-03-41-37-8164-PM.jpg) ![Silver short squeeze in one chart:](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/8-Oct-13-2025-03-41-37-8164-PM.jpg) #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [Commodities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) #### [Uranium miners are down 45% while uranium sits near $90, close to its highs.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/uranium-miners-are-down-45-while-uranium-sits-near-90-close-to-its-highs?hsLang=en) Last time miners got crushed while the metal held up was spring 2025… The Uranium Miners ETF nearly tripled in nine months Source: Katusa Research **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 12/10/2026 [Commodities|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) [oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) #### [Diesel is trading at over $200/barrel...](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/diesel-is-trading-at-over-200/barrel?hsLang=en) People say oil is the lifeblood of the economy... But the backbone of our economy runs on diesel: - ~80% of US freight by weight - ~80% of global trade moves by sea - Most farming - Most mining Source: Lukas Ekwueme **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 17/09/2026 [Commodities|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) [Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thought) #### [COPPER JUST HIT A RECORD HIGH](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/copper-just-hit-a-record-high?hsLang=en) LME copper has surged above $14,530 per tonne, climbing more than 68% since “Liberation Day” in April 2025. Copper is often called “the metal with a PhD in economics” because demand is closely tied to global growth, construction, electrification and industrial activity. And right now, Dr Copper is sending a powerful signal: Strong economic momentum Rising inflationary pressure Booming demand for electrification and AI infrastructure Copper isn’t just rallying. It may be warning that the global economy is running hotter than expected. Source: Bianco Research **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 08/09/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. [Discover more](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. 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