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The annual tradition of predicting where the S&P 500 will land at year-end has once again raised eyebrows. As Wall Street strategists share their projections for 2025, historical missteps in forecasting cast doubt on their accuracy. 2022: A challenging year where the S&P 500 fell by 19.4%, far worse than predictions. 2023: Despite experts forecasting a modest gain of 6.2%, the index surprised with a remarkable rise of 24.2%. 2024: A consensus estimate of 3% growth was dwarfed by an actual gain of nearly 24% by mid-December. For 2025, the consensus now points to a 9.6% price gain, translating to an 11%+ total return with dividends. source :bloomberg, economicstime
Equalweight in 2023: +11.56 Equalweight in 2024: +11.47 Cap-weighted in 2023: +24.23% Cap-weighted in 2024: +24.34% source : bespoke
Source: @thedailyshot, Lance Roberts @LanceRoberts