16 Jan 2024

The Dynamic of Rising US Treasury Yields and Inflation Expectations 📈

As we move further into the new year, there's a noteworthy trend unfolding in the world of finance - the steady rise of the 10-year US Treasury nominal yield. However, it's not as straightforward as it may seem. While many have been discussing the prospect of strong disinflation, what's actually exerting pressure on higher rates are the increasing long-term US inflation expectations. You can see this clearly in the chart below, which tracks the 10-year US breakeven (BE) rate and the 5-year, 5-year USD inflation swap rate. Both have climbed by more than 10 basis points, while the US real rate remains lower than at the beginning of the year. So, what is the market pricing in? Is it a reflection of the Federal Reserve's successful navigation toward a soft landing for the US economy? Or is it a response to rate-cut expectations, hinting at the resilience of the US economy? The dynamics at play here are fascinating and open up a world of possibilities. As we continue to monitor these developments, it's clear that 2024 holds some intriguing questions for investors. Source: Bloomberg


This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.

Read More

Straight from the Desk

Syz the moment

Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long.

Thinking out loud

Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts.

Follow us

Thinking out loud

Investing with intelligence

Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks