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This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
The TrumpβBessent supply-side mix, tariff revenues, and AI-driven growth are reshaping the bond market story. π΅ Tariffs are turning out to be less inflationary than initially feared (at least for now) and deficit-friendly. π° Stablecoins now hold $180B+ in Treasuries, quietly anchoring the short end of the curve. π The U.S. productivity boom powered by AI is leaving others behind β while Europe unravels fiscally, Britain wrestles with debt, and China sinks deeper into deflation. As global credit stress rises, U.S. bonds are the safe haven again. The curveβs bull flattening isnβt a warning β itβs (almost) a vote of confidence. The U.S. is once again the "least worst" house in a bad neighborhood of indebted peers. Source: Bloomberg, James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy
QT NEVER happened in 10+yr USTs post-2022. The Fed still holds a large amount of long-term debt. The QT mainly took place through short-term Treasuries (the blue line). As explained by StockMarket.news, over the last few years, the Fed has been draining some money out of the system but doing it in a very controlled way. Itβs avoiding a big sell-off in long-term bonds because that could cause interest rates to spike and hurt the economy. So while it looks like the Fed is being tough with QT, the reality is softer the real tightening is happening with short-term bonds, while the long-term side still has a safety net. Itβs a reminder that even when the Fed says itβs tightening, itβs still making sure the markets donβt fall apart.
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