26 Nov 2025

The latest ADP numbers are out and show that over the four weeks ending November 8, 2025, US private employers shed an average of 13,500 jobs per week.

📉 Inflation Isn’t the Story Anymore The Fed’s dual mandate is price stability + maximum employment — and the employment side is flashing red for the first time in years. 💡 And the Market Is Catching On Just 1–2 weeks ago, a December rate cut was basically dismissed. Markets were pricing in 30–42% odds. Then NY Fed President John Williams spoke on Friday — and he all but signaled, in classic Fed-speak, “We need to cut.” He pointed to rising downside risks in employment and fading risks in inflation. 🔍 Fast forward to this yesterday’s data: prediction markets now show an 85% chance of a December rate cut. Source: StockMarket.news

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