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The stock market may not like it but this is the right move if the Fed wants to regain any credibility as an inflation fighter. Source: Charlie Bilello @charliebilello
𝗙𝗼𝗿𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗴𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗴𝗼𝗻𝗲. Under Powell, the Fed told markets what was coming. Warsh refused. The dots, he said, are written "in pencil." He didn't even submit his own forecast. 𝗔 𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘁. He pledged to "fix five years of misses on inflation" — a rare, direct critique of the prior Fed. The 2% target stays. The closing line, repeated all conference: "The Committee will deliver price stability." 𝗔 𝗵𝗮𝘄𝗸𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝗱𝗼𝘁 𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘁. 9 of 18 officials now see at least one HIKE by end-2026 — and 6 of them see multiple. Just one sees a cut. 𝗙𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝘁𝗮𝘀𝗸 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀. Communications, the balance sheet, data, productivity & jobs, and inflation frameworks — everything under review except the 2% target. Deliverables possible by year-end. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻? ~$1.5 trillion erased across equities, metals and crypto in 10 minutes — with NO rate change. S&P 500 −1.2% • Nasdaq −1.35% • Gold −2.22% • Silver −3.95% • Bitcoin −1.8% The takeaway: this was a hawkish shock delivered through tone, not action. A Fed that stops pre-announcing its moves is a Fed that just reintroduced volatility as a feature, not a bug. The Powell put on certainty is over. Markets are still repricing what that means. What's your read — disciplined return to price stability, or a communication vacuum that markets will punish?
At the same time, defensive stocks account for just 15%, an all-time LOW. Not even the 2000 Dot-Com BUBBLE saw such a divergence with tech peaking at ~50% while defensives remained above 20%. Has a new era of equity market performance come, or are defensive stocks going to catch up over the years? Source: Topdown charts, Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv
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