3 Apr 2023

US ISM manufacturing drops to 46.3, the lowest since May 2020, the month after the COVID recession ended

March ISM Manufacturing came out at 46.3 vs. 47.5 est. & 47.7 in prior month; new orders are down to 44.3, prices paid back into contraction at 49.2, and production edged slightly higher (but still contracting at 47.8). Employment fell further into contraction (lowest since July 2020). ISM started surveying in 1948. As this chart shows, this is the 16th time the ISM has been 46.3 or lower. 12 (75%) of these instances, the economy was either in recession or about to enter a recession Source: Liz Ann Sonders, Bianco Research, Bloomberg

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