30 Oct 2025

😨 Weak breadth: a Hindenburg Omen was triggered yesterday 🚨

The past 30 times this happened, $SPX fell 83% of the time 2 months later ➡️ What is a Hindenburg Omen ??? The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis signal that’s often cited as a warning of a potential stock market crash or major correction. It’s named (dramatically) after the Hindenburg airship disaster, implying that markets might be headed for a similar fiery fate when the signal appears. Here’s what it actually means 👇 ⚙️ The Mechanics The Hindenburg Omen triggers when a specific combination of conditions occur on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE): 1. A large number of stocks hit new 52-week highs and a large number hit new 52-week lows — on the same day. 2. The number of new highs and new lows both represent more than 2.2% of all issues traded. 3. The NYSE composite index is above its level from 50 trading days ago (i.e., the market is still in an uptrend). 4. Market breadth (the McClellan Oscillator) is negative. 💡 What It Signals - This combo suggests internal conflict in the market — investors are both euphoric (driving some stocks to new highs) and fearful (dumping others to new lows). - That kind of divergence often happens before major turning points — when optimism and fear coexist uneasily. ⚠️ The Catch - It’s not a guaranteed crash predictor. - Historically, it’s produced lots of false alarms, but most major market crashes (like 2008) were preceded by one. So, think of it as a “storm warning” — not a crash forecast. When it flashes, investors tend to watch liquidity, breadth, and credit spreads much more closely. Source: Subu Trade: h/t @McClellanOsc

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