Why the end of the oil shock is detonating a great rotation and where we take risk off
Alan Greenspan, who presided over the Federal Reserve for more than eighteen years and came to embody the very idea of central banking, died 22 June at his home in Washington at the age of 100. He leaves behind the legacy of a man celebrated as the “Maestro” of the global economy, before the crises that followed made his record more controversial.
Just months ago, consensus called for a weaker dollar and higher gold & silver. Five months later, everything changed. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.
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Why the end of the oil shock is detonating a great rotation and where we take risk off
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Major U.S. stock indexes finished the holiday-shortened week mixed, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and the Dow Jones advancing while the Russell 2000 declined. We note that Momentum stocks fell 18% on Wednesday & Thursday. U.S. markets were closed on Friday in observance of the Independence Day holiday. On the macro front, the U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, missing estimates (110,000) and marking the softest reading since February’s negative print. Prior months were also revised lower. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%. Following the report, the probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s July meeting dropped from around 29% to about 18%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. On Wednesday, private payrolls firm ADP also reported that private employers added a lower-than-expected 98,000 jobs in June, down from 122,000 in May.
Oil prices down to their pre-conflict levels drive rates and expectations for central banks lower, credit markets digest record issuance in June
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