Below are the top 10 events and surprises that could impact financial markets and the global economy in the New Year. These are not forecasts, but potential macroeconomic, geopolitical, or market events that are not anticipated by financial markets. We also try to assess the probability of occurrence (high, medium, low) of each of them.

Gemini 3 has just been ranked as the best performing AI model, a reversal that few saw coming. A year ago, OpenAI models were leading the charts.

H1 2026

The 2025 season is coming to an end. This year has been anything but quiet: Trump's historic return to the presidency, the April "Liberation Day" tariff shock, major AI breakthroughs, bitcoin's volatile journey, and a stunning market rebound. Here are ten stories to remember.

When Michael Burry bets against the crowd, markets pay attention. The man who called the subprime mortgage crisis and made over $800 million while the financial system collapsed is now warning that artificial intelligence stocks are the next bubble ready to burst. And he is making this call just as he steps away from the spotlight: on November 10, his hedge fund’s registration was terminated, per SEC records, ending his requirement to file regulatory disclosures.

After six decades as the moral compass of the business world, Warren Buffett has written his goodbye. His farewell letter is about luck, humility, and his life in general rather than financial advice or forecasts. It reads less like a corporate announcement and more like a final lesson from a teacher who has spent a lifetime studying both business and human nature.

The CFA Institute trains thousands of financial analysts annually. Yet, its own portfolio follows one of the simplest playbooks: a passive global 60/40 model that hasn’t changed in more than a decade.

A new wave of platforms lets traders bet on real-world events, from policy decisions to pop culture. What began as speculation is now challenging how finance measures truth and probability.

Everyone makes plans: for travel, fitness or the year ahead. China does it too. Last week, China’s top leaders met in a four-day conclave in Beijing to decide on the country's goals and aspirations for the next five years.

A publication by US President Donald Trump on social media led to the largest 24-hour wipeout in crypto history. The most curious part about the event was the discovery that someone realised a nine-figure profit by shorting the crypto market right before the news.