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WEEKLY SUMMARY: Powell “pivot” triggered panic bids in bonds & stocks
The S&P 500 Index, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded their 7th consecutive week of gains—the longest streak for the S&P 500 since 2017. The gains lifted the first two benchmarks to 52-week highs and the Dow to an all-time record. Continuing a recent pattern, the week’s gains were also broadly based. The S&P 500 equal-weighted index outpaced its market-weighted counterpart by 131 basis points over the week. Small-caps also outperformed. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), the “fear gauge,” fell to its lowest level in the post-COVID era. In the 1st part of the week, investors’ sentiment was driven by a benign inflation environment; Tuesday’s US CPI was roughly in line with estimates while Wednesday’s PPI report surprised modestly on the downside. Stocks had their biggest advance of the week on Wednesday as the Fed indicated through their quarterly “dotplot” more rate cuts in 2024 (the median projection was for 75 basis points of rate cuts coming in 2024, up from the 50 basis points of easing in their previous projection). Long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply on the inflation data and Fed signals, bringing the US 10-year Treasury yield below 4% for the 1st time since the end of July. The STOXX Europe 600 Index ended the week 0.92% as the ECB kept borrowing costs at record high (as the BoE and the SNB did). Japan’s stock markets rose over the week, with the Nikkei 225 Index gaining 2.1%. Chinese equities declined as persistent deflationary pressures weighed on the economic outlook.
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US equities managed to snap a string of three weekly losses. Earnings took center stage with the spotlight on the Magnificent 7 stocks. Despite the high bar, companies have so far been able to beat expectations, helping the S&P 500 recover half of its April losses. The Nasdaq outperformed, up 4% on the week (its best week since the start of Nov 2023), helped in part by strength in Apple and a late rebound in chipmaker NVIDIA. Shares in Google parent Alphabet also surged in the week following its announcement of better-than-expected Q1 earnings along with the company’s first dividend payment. The Dow was the laggard. On the Macro side, the US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.6% in Q1, well below consensus estimates of around 2.5% and the slowest pace of growth in nearly two years.