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WEEKLY SUMMARY: Powell “pivot” triggered panic bids in bonds & stocks
The S&P 500 Index, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded their 7th consecutive week of gains—the longest streak for the S&P 500 since 2017. The gains lifted the first two benchmarks to 52-week highs and the Dow to an all-time record. Continuing a recent pattern, the week’s gains were also broadly based. The S&P 500 equal-weighted index outpaced its market-weighted counterpart by 131 basis points over the week. Small-caps also outperformed. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), the “fear gauge,” fell to its lowest level in the post-COVID era. In the 1st part of the week, investors’ sentiment was driven by a benign inflation environment; Tuesday’s US CPI was roughly in line with estimates while Wednesday’s PPI report surprised modestly on the downside. Stocks had their biggest advance of the week on Wednesday as the Fed indicated through their quarterly “dotplot” more rate cuts in 2024 (the median projection was for 75 basis points of rate cuts coming in 2024, up from the 50 basis points of easing in their previous projection). Long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply on the inflation data and Fed signals, bringing the US 10-year Treasury yield below 4% for the 1st time since the end of July. The STOXX Europe 600 Index ended the week 0.92% as the ECB kept borrowing costs at record high (as the BoE and the SNB did). Japan’s stock markets rose over the week, with the Nikkei 225 Index gaining 2.1%. Chinese equities declined as persistent deflationary pressures weighed on the economic outlook.
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Most US equities indexes ended the week lower, although the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced modestly and cleared the 20,000 mark for the first time. The Russell 2000 Index recorded a second consecutive week of underperformance against the S&P 500 Index. Growth stocks posted a third consecutive week of outperformance versus value, thanks in part to gains in shares of Tesla (12%) and Alphabet (8.4%). On the macro-economic side, stagflation fears started to rise once again. Indeed, YoY CPI and PPI both accelerated. Meanwhile overall macro surprises disappointed for the fourth week in a row: on Thursday, the Labor Department reported a surprise jump in weekly initial jobless claims to a two-month high of 242,000.