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WEEKLY SUMMARY: Nasdaq 100 and Dow hit new record high
Stocks continued their weekly winning streak—the longest since 2017. The S&P 500 Index briefly moved within 84 basis points of its all-time intraday high while the Nasdaq 100 Index and Dow Jones managed new records. Note that the Russell 2000 has gained 24% over the last 36 trading days, one of the biggest small cap rallies in history. Not all stocks gained; FEDEX stock is down -11% on the week as Q2 profits missed expectations. Nike is down -11% after missing sales estimates and cutting outlook. The global disinflation trend is gaining steam as inflation cools down more than expected in the U.S., UK, and Japan. In the US, the headline PCE index fell 0.1% in November, marking its first decline in 21 months, thanks to a sharp decline in goods prices. The reassuring inflation data led to a sharp decline in rate expectations over the coming year. Short-term bond yields decreased, resulting in a steepening of the Treasury yield curve. In Europe, the STOXX 600 Index ticked 0.2% higher. Stocks in China declined after the government announced new restrictions on the gaming sector. Tencent dropped by -16%, the most since 2008. Oil prices rose for the 2nd week in a row, after seven straight weeks lower. Gold rose for the 5th week of the last 6 and back above $2050 spot to three-week highs. The dollar fell to its weakest since July, down for the 5th week in the last 6. In cryptos, both ETH and BTC were up around 4% while Solana soared 35%. On the private equity side, OpenAI is in talks to raise new funding at a $100B valuation.
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Most of US equities indices rose to record highs, as investors wagered that a “red sweep” (Republicans winning Presidency, Senate and Congress) would result in faster earnings growth, looser regulations, and lower corporate taxes. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index surged 8.57% for the week but was the sole benchmark to remain out of record territory. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones hit 44.000 for the first time while the S&P 500 closed just shy of 6,000, up 4.7% for the week, its best weekly gain in almost a year. On Thursday, the Fed announced a 25bps rate cut, its first easing move since cutting rates by 50 basis points in mid-September. In terms of economic data, the October ISM services sector activity came in at 56.0, well above expectations and the best reading since August 2022. U.S. Treasuries generated positive returns heading into Friday, as yields largely ended lower than where they ended the previous week.