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WEEKLY SUMMARY: Nasdaq 100 and Dow hit new record high
Stocks continued their weekly winning streak—the longest since 2017. The S&P 500 Index briefly moved within 84 basis points of its all-time intraday high while the Nasdaq 100 Index and Dow Jones managed new records. Note that the Russell 2000 has gained 24% over the last 36 trading days, one of the biggest small cap rallies in history. Not all stocks gained; FEDEX stock is down -11% on the week as Q2 profits missed expectations. Nike is down -11% after missing sales estimates and cutting outlook. The global disinflation trend is gaining steam as inflation cools down more than expected in the U.S., UK, and Japan. In the US, the headline PCE index fell 0.1% in November, marking its first decline in 21 months, thanks to a sharp decline in goods prices. The reassuring inflation data led to a sharp decline in rate expectations over the coming year. Short-term bond yields decreased, resulting in a steepening of the Treasury yield curve. In Europe, the STOXX 600 Index ticked 0.2% higher. Stocks in China declined after the government announced new restrictions on the gaming sector. Tencent dropped by -16%, the most since 2008. Oil prices rose for the 2nd week in a row, after seven straight weeks lower. Gold rose for the 5th week of the last 6 and back above $2050 spot to three-week highs. The dollar fell to its weakest since July, down for the 5th week in the last 6. In cryptos, both ETH and BTC were up around 4% while Solana soared 35%. On the private equity side, OpenAI is in talks to raise new funding at a $100B valuation.
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US equities managed to snap a string of three weekly losses. Earnings took center stage with the spotlight on the Magnificent 7 stocks. Despite the high bar, companies have so far been able to beat expectations, helping the S&P 500 recover half of its April losses. The Nasdaq outperformed, up 4% on the week (its best week since the start of Nov 2023), helped in part by strength in Apple and a late rebound in chipmaker NVIDIA. Shares in Google parent Alphabet also surged in the week following its announcement of better-than-expected Q1 earnings along with the company’s first dividend payment. The Dow was the laggard. On the Macro side, the US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.6% in Q1, well below consensus estimates of around 2.5% and the slowest pace of growth in nearly two years.