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WEEKLY SUMMARY: VIX hits lowest level since late 2021
The major US equity indices ended mixed following a week while the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, fell to its lowest level since late 2021. 88 S&P 500 Index companies had reported earnings as of Friday. Financials outperformed overall during the week despite a brief plunge in shares of Goldman Sachs after the investment banking giant missed consensus revenue estimates. US economic data were mixed: Weekly jobless claims rose a bit more than expected, but continuing claims jumped by much more than anticipated and reached their highest level (1.87 million) since November 2021. Housing data were also soft, with starts and permits slowing from February’s readings. Existing homes sales fell, and year-over-year home prices dropped 0.9%, the largest decrease in 11 years. However, S&P Global US PMIs painted a much different picture as it rose to its highest level in almost a year (53.5). The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note jumped following the S&P Global data release, reversing earlier declines and leaving it modestly higher for the week. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index gained 0.45%, as optimism about the economic outlook outweighed concerns about interest rates staying higher for longer. Annual UK consumer price growth in March slowed by less than expected to 10.1% from 10.4% in February, driven by surging food and drink prices. Gold and cryptos slid as US Sovereign risk roared to record high.
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Stocks recorded broad losses, as concerns over tensions in the Middle East and the possibility of U.S. interest rates remaining “higher for longer” appeared to weigh on sentiment. Mega-cap technology shares lagged as rising rates placed a higher theoretical discount on future earnings. A Q1 revenue miss from ASML Holdings also seemed to weigh on the sector and on general optimism toward companies with AI-related earnings. Some strong economic data (e.g retail sales +0.7% vs. 0.3% expected) appeared to increase worries that the Fed would push back any interest rate cuts to the fall, if not to 2025. Conversely, downward surprises in housing market data may have furthered inflation fears by auguring continued supply tightness. As was the case last week, Fed officials expressed their concern with recent economic data.