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WEEKLY SUMMARY: VIX hits lowest level since late 2021
The major US equity indices ended mixed following a week while the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, fell to its lowest level since late 2021. 88 S&P 500 Index companies had reported earnings as of Friday. Financials outperformed overall during the week despite a brief plunge in shares of Goldman Sachs after the investment banking giant missed consensus revenue estimates. US economic data were mixed: Weekly jobless claims rose a bit more than expected, but continuing claims jumped by much more than anticipated and reached their highest level (1.87 million) since November 2021. Housing data were also soft, with starts and permits slowing from February’s readings. Existing homes sales fell, and year-over-year home prices dropped 0.9%, the largest decrease in 11 years. However, S&P Global US PMIs painted a much different picture as it rose to its highest level in almost a year (53.5). The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note jumped following the S&P Global data release, reversing earlier declines and leaving it modestly higher for the week. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index gained 0.45%, as optimism about the economic outlook outweighed concerns about interest rates staying higher for longer. Annual UK consumer price growth in March slowed by less than expected to 10.1% from 10.4% in February, driven by surging food and drink prices. Gold and cryptos slid as US Sovereign risk roared to record high.
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The S&P 500 closed at a fresh all-time high on Friday, rising for a 5th consecutive week, its longest weekly winning streak since 2024. This brings the index up +15% since the March 30 low, also marking April as the best month for stocks since November 2022. Stocks largely shrugged off the stream of sometimes conflicting headlines about the war in the Middle East and a surprisingly hawkish Federal Reserve policy meeting to post solid gains in most major indexes. Large-cap stocks outpaced small-caps, and value outperformed growth. Five of the “Mag 7” companies reported earnings, with financial results generally meeting or exceeding expectations for these bellwether firms. Meanwhile, major central banks keep rates on hold amid war uncertainty.