5 Aug 2026
- Revenue: $11.54B vs $11.28B expected
- Adjusted EPS: $1.66 vs $1.62 expected
- Data center revenue: $6.72B, up 107% year over year
- Q3 guidance: $12.7B to $13.3B vs $12.5B expected
First, capex came in at $808 million against a $298 million estimate, nearly three times what analysts modelled. The market is no longer rewarding AI spending. It wants to see the revenue.
Second, valuation. The market is asking whether today's price already reflects years of exceptional growth.
Here's an interesting case made by Oguz Erkan @oguzerkan on X ➡️ Assume AMD can sustain 40% annual revenue growth through 2030. That would imply roughly $200 billion in revenue. With a 40% net margin, net income would reach around $80 billion. Applying a 20x earnings multiple results in a company worth approximately $1.6 trillion. Discounted back to today at a 10% annual rate, that equates to a present value of roughly $990 billion.
With AMD already valued at around $845 billion, investors see relatively little room for execution mistakes or weaker-than-expected growth.
Third, another concern is that AMD's rapid expansion is closely tied to the current AI infrastructure spending boom. As customers increasingly diversify beyond NVIDIA, AMD has emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries. However, many investors expect AI capex growth to moderate after 2027, raising questions about how long this tailwind can last.
In short, AMD's outlook remains compelling, but its valuation leaves little margin for disappointment.
Source: Bull Theory, Oguz Erkan @oguzerkan on X
