11 Feb 2026

Brace yourselves: "One Shouldn't Panic" At How Bad The January Jobs

The real focus of Wednesday’s January jobs report is not the monthly headline figure but the major BLS revisions that could erase over one million previously reported jobs, revealing a much weaker labor market than believed. Economists are already preparing markets for softer data, with some suggesting that 50,000 monthly job gains may become the new benchmark amid a federal hiring freeze, productivity gains, and immigration shifts. The report may also appear weaker due to updates to the “birth-death” model, which could eliminate tens of thousands of previously estimated jobs each month. While unemployment is expected to hold around 4.4%, the Fed is closely watching signs that job growth has been overstated, marking a broader transition from labor hoarding to a cooling and more fragile economic environment.

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