10 Apr 2024

BREAKING >>> Oups... March CPI inflation rate RISES to 3.5%, above expectations of 3.4%. Core inflation beat as well...

-> The Headline CPI for March came in at +0.4% above expectations of +0.3% month-over-month. On a YoY basis, Headline CPI increased 3.5% vs. 3.4% expected and 3.2% in February. This follows January and February being hotter readings than expected. This is the highest headline CPI reading since last September. -> The core CPI (ex-food and energy) also came in above estimates: +0.4% MoM (vs. +0.3% estimates) and 3.8% yoy vs. 3.7% expected and 3.76% in February. This is the first uptick in core inflation since March 2023. Transportation prices are up +10.7% yoy; Shelter is up +5.7% yoy -> Even the "Supercore services" index which FED policymakers have been emphasizing, which strips out housing, ROSE +0.65% on the month, continuing the trend of higher prints. It is up 4.77% yoy, a 11 months high... -> The fed and Powell are not going to like it. This number might decrease rate cuts expectations even more (they have gone from 7 to less than 3 in just a few months). Could we see 0 rate cuts in 2024? Markets don't like it either as S&P 500 futures decreased 90 points in a matter of minutes. The US 10-year Treasury yield ip up +12 basis points to 4.49%. The 2-year is up +17 basis points to 4.91%...


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