US 2s/30s yield spread briefly turns positive for 1st time since January
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Using the past seven tightening cycles as a guide, GS notes that the S&P usually struggles at the start, falling an average of 2% over the first three months. The pinch typically does not last long, however, with the index gaining an average of 9% over the following 12 months. The bruising exception was 2022. Ultimately, earnings growth determines the market’s trajectory, but the speed and volatility of the move in rates can heavily influence stocks along the way. Source: TME, GS
Source: zerohedge, Bloomberg
Approximately 40% of S&P 500 companies are expected to enter blackout periods. This transition typically tempers one of the market’s most consistent sources of demand. Source: TME, GS

