16 Sep 2026

Dear Donald, the "no war no peace" with Iran doesn't work here. You need to try something new...

Brent is closing in on $110 after Houthi strikes shut the Saudi East-West pipeline, with Riyadh’s output at a 30-year low of roughly 6m b/d and Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb presenting a two-front chokepoint risk. This is a supply shock, which means it doesn't fade on its own, and the WTI/10Y correlation has hit 0.96. Every barrel higher is a basis point in the long end. Then there's the quiet second claim on the same buyer pool: the AI build out. Hyperscaler capex now runs >100% of operating cash flow, implying ~$1.3tn of debt by 2028, with tech leading the $380bn 2026 bond supply, competing directly with Treasuries while bidding up chips, power and labor. The trade funding the equity bull is now financing the tightening cycle. Source: TME

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