11 Jun 2024


With 20 days to go to the lower house snap elections, a poll credits Marine Le Pen RN with 34% of the vote, far ahead of the left & far-left coalition and the Macron camp. One election can hide another. No sooner have the results of the European elections been announced than all eyes have turned to the early legislative elections. With 20 days to go to the first round, a Toluna Harris Interactive poll for Challenges, M6 and RTL puts the Rassemblement National (RN) well ahead. If the legislative elections had been held today, the Rassemblement National would have won 34% of the vote. A clear improvement on the 18.7% recorded in 2022. Long under-represented in the Assembly, the RN would be the leading force in the lower house. However, as the legislative elections will be held in 577 constituencies over two rounds, it is very difficult to project a precise number of seats. For the time being, it's impossible to know whether the Marinist troops will win an absolute or even a relative majority. Nevertheless, they seem to be well positioned to win the election, especially if they can create a coalition with other right-wing parties and traditional right. A win by RN could lead to a cohabitation with Jordan Bardella (RN) as Prime Minister. Source: Le Figaro


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