Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecast for the rest of this year, betting on a longer disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Higher oil prices crush import-dependent economies like India: Oil ↑ → Growth ↓ → Currency ↓ → Import costs ↑ → Gold demand ↓. That’s why gold has been weak despite geopolitical chaos. India is curbing gold imports to defend the Rupee. Turkey already burned reserves. China is temporarily balancing the system by cutting crude imports. The real story isn’t “gold vs fear.” It’s commodities, FX, and EM liquidity transmission. Mental flexibility > rigid macro views. Source: Alexander Stahel on X Bloomberg
Gold has continued its huge consolidation phase following the violent pukes we saw earlier this year. The shorter-term trend line has survived several tests, but we are now approaching the major $4400 level, with the 200 day moving average coming in just below. That is the must hold area. Source: TME, LSEG Workspace
Source: Bloomberg, RBC

