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This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document.
The Core CPI number is matching forecasts and is staying below BOJ’s 2% target for a second month. Headline inflation came in at 1.5%, compared with 1.3% in February, staying below the central bank’s 2% target for a second straight month. The so-called “core-core” inflation rate, which strips out prices of both fresh food and energy, dipped to 2.4% from February’s 2.5%, marking its lowest level since October 2024. Rising oil prices have prompted government subsidies to cap gasoline costs, though these may be expensive to sustain. Analysts warn prolonged high energy prices could push core inflation toward 3%, while weakening household purchasing power. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates steady for now but maintain a bias toward future hikes as inflation expectations rise and economic risks persist. Source: CNBC
➡️ "Regime change" at the Fed: new inflation framework, revised communications, possibly fewer FOMC meetings per year. ➡️ Independence: vowed not to be Trump's "sock puppet," but declined to defend Governor Cook; said political comments on rates don't threaten Fed independence. ➡️ Dovish pivot: argues AI-driven productivity gains justify rate cuts despite 3.3% CPI. ➡️ Balance sheet is the key lever: accelerate QT, offset with lower short rates — implies a steeper curve. Confirmation at risk: Sen. Tillis (R-NC) blocking until DOJ drops Powell investigation; no clear path without him. Market read: mildly hawkish tone on the day — 10Y +4bps to 4.29%, equities turned negative intraday (but the fact that JD Vance to Pakistan for a second attempt at peace negotiations with Iran has been put on hold also explains bond yields rise and stocks pullback...) Note that prediction markets put only a 33% chance that Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Federal Reserve chair by May 15, when Jerome Powell’s term ends, according to Polymarket and Kalshi. Source: *Walter Bloomberg
Source: Wall St Engine
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