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Then the attacks resumed. Combined exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Qatar and Oman tell the story: ▪️ Jan–Feb: 18.9 million barrels/day ▪️ May trough: 6.5 million — down 66% ▪️ September: 14.7 million ▪️ October so far: 17.3 million — 91% of pre-war levels The recovery relied on ingenuity: Saudi pipelines diverted crude to the Red Sea, while shuttle tankers carried barrels through Hormuz to supertankers waiting outside. But the cumulative damage remains enormous: 1.7 billion fewer barrels exported between March and September than at the pre-war pace. And October’s rebound is fragile. ⚠️ The figures cover only the first two weeks. Six ships were hit around Hormuz on 11 October. More than 10 empty supertankers have turned back near Fujairah. Export routes can adapt. A sustained recovery still requires security. Source: Jack Prandelli on X, Gulf News
➡️ Saudi-backed forces launch major counteroffensive with roughly 100 Saudi fighter jets supporting attacks along the Red Sea coast. ➡️Mocha's status remains disputed: Government forces claim to have retaken the strategic port, while Houthis deny the loss. ➡️Houthis announce major missile & drone attack on Saudi territory, including against international airport in Riyadh. ➡️Houthi fighters reportedly seize homes of senior government figures, including Parliament Speaker Sultan al-Barakani's mansion. ➡️Bab el-Mandeb is increasingly at risk, raising concerns for Red Sea shipping and the wider Suez trade route. Source : Summary by zerohedge
Brent continues to carry a substantial geopolitical premium, but the physical shortage is already shrinking. Goldman estimates that the global oil deficit has narrowed from roughly 7mb/d near the start of the war in March to approximately 1mb/d in Q3. Gulf production has partially recovered, demand has weakened and supply outside the region has risen faster than expected. Oil does not need the conflict to end. It needs the disruption to stop getting worse. Source: GS / TME